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Praetorium Honoris

Monday, March 4, 2019

Dodging the Golden BB

Since Saturday was the First of March, Rancho Juvat officially switched out of Winter Mode and into Spring Mode. I gotta tell ya folks, it's a moving ceremony. Lots of Pomp and Circumstance.

I mean, it's almost just like this.




On Friday, I broke out the sacred vessel and carefully mixed the special concoction and placed it in its revered ceremonial preparation spot.  At precisely 7:42 AM Saturday,  I performed the special ceremony to officially welcome Spring.



Ahhhh.....Iced Coffee!  Only authorized March 1-November 1.  High Temp on Saturday was 80°.  A perfect beverage.

Of course, this is Texas.  In Texas, Mom gets a big vote.  No, not Mrs J.  She gets a VERY big vote, but Mom gets an even bigger one.

Woke up this morning to go visit with the Big Guy, afterword took my beloved to breakfast  and decided to check my weather app.



Crap, it's not even daylight yet and we've hit the high temp for the next 3 days already. Guess I'd better fire up the French Press again.

BTW, 4:30 in that video, I thought it a bit Cheeky of us.  But loved it nonetheless.

Was "Tank Week" something or what?  Who knew there was so much to know about Tanks?

In one of the comment strings, Our Esteemed Commander of the Royal Poland Chant Commenters (AKA Pawel) commented about the ZSU-23-4 Shilka ".. would be nightmare to any low-flying pilot in anything less armored than A-10..."

The ZSU-23-4 is a nighmare to anyone flying low level. Even an A-10.
I decided to do something dangerous and think about that a bit. to see if I could turn something into this post. The discussion thus far of Iced Coffee, Cold Weather  and bagpipes didn't seem to get me to OldNFO's 9999 word level, which I gather is where he starts making the "big bucks" in writing. And...pay here at the Chant...Well.....

Anyhoo, I did some digging and found out that the science of AAA hasn't changed much over the years. Basically it's "Aim a gun out in front of the aircraft and fire when the aircraft will arrive at the aimed airspace one time of flight after you pull the trigger." 

Sounds simple.  The defense against AAA is even simpler.

"Don't be in that airspace at that time."

See, kids, flying a fighter is easy, just follow that second rule.

As one may surmise, it ain't that easy.  If it were, Even the Marines could fly fighters.

Nope, not going there.

There is some physics involved here, and the actual rules of thumb haven't changed much over time. I found this video online and the rules of thumb were essentially the same as they were in WWII.
It's an interesting 16 minute video narrated by, I think,  Ronald Reagan.  Watch it if you wish realizing that the cameramen actually flew on real missions to get this footage.  Volunteers.

I'll summarize the operable data below the link.





Basically, if you were below 10K', fly as fast as you can, as low as you can to get through the area while making frequent random changes in altitude and heading (AKA jinking).  Oh, yeah, don't hit the ground either.  The majority of the weapons in that envelope are not radar guided.  (We'll discuss the Shilka exception shortly)

For High Altitude, the film quotes a bullet speed of 1000 FPS (feet per second), so a bullet fired at you flying at 30K' would take about 30 seconds to reach your altitude.  So, if you've received data that AAA has locked on to you  move the aircraft.  The film says wait 20 seconds and then move it.  That's fine for the first round, but there are going to be several more rounds behind it.  So one shouldn't remain in a steady heading and altitude for more that a few seconds.  The AAA systems the film talks about did not have high speed digital tracking that current systems do, so the WWII pilot could make a course or altitude correction and have an interval between then and his next correction.

Not so today, by the time the first round leaves the barrel, the aiming control system has already recalculated and repointed the weapon. Only the time of flight hasn't changed all that much.

However....

In this video which focuses on the physical features of the Shilka, the narrator brings out an outstanding point about air defense in the modern battlefield.  WWII was only two dimensional, AAA and Fighters.  The modern battlefield adds Surface to Air Missiles.




 While clearly, if a SAM hits you, you are in deep kimchi, however one of the other things they bring to the fight is that to defeat the missile, one must expend quite a bit of energy.

Regaining that energy frequently means losing altitude, as the engine is almost certainly at max thrust.

I showed this video to my class at Leavenworth in '92.  It is an excellent representation of what it's like in a modern day war in the air.   This guy gets 6 SAMs shot at him.  The flight starts at about the 2 minute mark.  Air speed is the left side vertical bar.  Altitude is the right side vertical bar .  At the start of the festivities, he's doing about 390K at 25,500'.  He ends up after defeating all the missiles, (You can see several of them in the film.  they look like jagged contrails.) and is around 200K and about 11000'.  Remember, AAA becomes much more effective below 10K'.  So, this guy is getting driven down to where the Shilka will be very effective.






I didn't then and don't now like watching this video.  One very lucky young man, but there's a point at the 8:10 mark where I think he's dangerously close to violating the "Never Give Up, Never Surrender" edict.

So, juvat, if one of the functions of SAMs is to drive the attacker closer to the ground, what happens then.

Well.  here's a video of a Shilka taking on a MiG-23.  I don't know what the result was, however, since they didn't film a fireball which one would assume they would if one had occurred, I'd say they damaged the MiG, at best.  Notice that there is an unprotected person standing outside the Shilka and that the radar dish is folded down.  The MiG is a fast aircraft. Given the slew rate of the turret, I'd say the MiG pilot is using the "Speed is Life" defense as outlined in the WWII film.






So,  based on these videos, I hope I've better explained why I HiSSS when AAA is mentioned.  SAMs are only slightly lower on the dislike meter.  Generally, if you see one of them, you can defeat them.  With AAA, if the round is in the air, since you can't see it, all you can do is hope that he's a lousy shot.and  avoid the golden BB.

Finally,  I offer the following without comment.




BTW Friday is supposed to be back in the 70's. Gotta love Winter in Texas!

67 comments:

  1. Great discussion of the perils to be encountered in the air. Noted that the Shilka banging away only has three barrels, opposed to the normal four. Hhmm, maintenance issues?

    Re: The Edinburgh Tattoo of 2018, The Nuke was in attendance for the 2017 version of that event. I'd like to see that someday.

    For New Englanders, well, for me at any rate, ice coffee is a year-round thing.

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    1. Somebody stole his barrel to make a sniper rifle, like this:

      https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2016/02/robert-farago/isis-snipers-use-giant-sniper-rifle-sic/

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    2. Well, there ya go! The right caliber and everything.

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    3. Well, Iced Coffee works for New England. Cools you off in the summer, warms you up in the winter. High of 31 today and very windy, so that might just work for me.

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    4. I hadn't noticed the missing barrel. Good Eye, Sarge!

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    5. I don't know about that sniper rifle, a bear. I think the recoil would permanently disable his shoulder. But I'm not a rifle expert, so maybe so.

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  2. Shilkas are old news, though. Modern AAA systems like the 2K22 Tunguska take the approach of “Hey, it seems like you enjoy dodging my bullets. Have some missiles, too!”

    I’m not sure I’d enjoy being one of the turboprop CAS pilots anywhere in a theater where any of these things could be lurking.

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    1. I'm absolutely positive I wouldn't enjoy being in a turboprop with those things lurking in the area. "juvat, why were you doing 1.1 mach leaving the target area? Because I couldn't get 1.2!"

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    2. Turboprop CAS aircraft are supposed to be used in light intensity conflict areas where the light intensity enemy aren't SUPPOSED to have any real friggin AAA, especially ZSU-23s.

      One of the many reasons the Air Force has used to not justify buying any light attack aircraft since we got rid of the AT-37 and the OV-10.

      I really wished they had resurrected the OV-10. I loved watching that plane fly around Patrick AFB back in the days.

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    3. Agreed...Unfortunately, my time in the Air Force Budgeting process involved less money, not more. Got to fund the Spotted Owl Relief fund, doncha' know. Billie Jeff needs re-electing.

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    4. Agree about the OV-10....very cool aircraft!

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    5. To each his own. Did its job well. Job was valuable. Cool? All in the eye of the beholder. To the grunt on the ground in need of CAS? Miss Universe probably didn't look as good.

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    6. I've seen OV-10s and A-10s playing tag. It was fun. And the OV-10X project, with stronger wings, newer engines and total remake of the avionics and weapons systems, would have flown circles around the current single-engine candidates.

      But... well... every project has a backer in Congress or the White House. Rockwell's backer wasn't good enough, apparently.

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  3. Ah....only things iced around here juvat, are the sidewalks, driveways, trees, decks, vehicles....heavy frost this AM at minus eight. The Edinburgh Tattoo is quite the show, by itself it would make it worthwhile to cross the pond. Soviets loved the AAA, missiles and guns...oh my! Jeessh... 30mm guns too....good posting.

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    1. Yeah, we've been talking about another Scotland trip as our last one has some "interruptions" to say the least. I think we'll try to work it around Tattoo.
      Regarding Ice. I think it's great...in Coffee, Scotch, Sodas. On things? Not so much. Stay warm my friend!

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    2. Remember the traveler's friend, Imodium. Don't leave home without it!

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    3. Based on that trip, my grab 'n go dopp kit has bottle 1 each of Imodium, an Antihistimine and Dramamine.

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  4. When not firing at Juvat, the Shilka could also be employed in an anti-personnel role.

    There was an incident more than a few kilometers north of the DMZ where a Marine Force Recon squad was taken on by a Shilka that they didn't see until it opened up. Pants-full, they fled with no losses. I'm not doubting the courage of Marines here. The Shilka was supported by infantry and there was no good outcome scenario to that. That they lived to report the incident is testament enough to skill at E&E.

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    1. That looked like what the Shilka in the last video was doing given the angle of the barrel flashes. Unless the Airplane was REALLY low. Another good reason to take them out ASAP.

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    2. Back in WWII the M16 dual or quad .50cal AAA turret, mounted on a half-track, was affectionately called the 'Chopper.' Since the German and Japanese air forces were scant, well, boys being boys, many a Kraut and Jap got shot at, through, with etc the CHOPPER.

      More is always better in suppressive area denial firing. Plus it looks neat!

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    3. More is virtually always better in war. I suppose that may or may not have been the case in LL's line of work, however.

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    4. My Dad told me about seeing the quad-50 get used on a sniper in the South Pacific. He said it took the tops of the trees off where the sniper was hiding.

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    5. "I know you're in there somewhere. Here, let me send my little 1/2" robots to root you out!" Works for me

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    6. For those who want to see a quad 50 in action, well, suffer through "Water World" until the Smokers attack the floating town.

      Meh, it's an okay movie, but...

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  5. Aiming and coordinating those AAA is a process of it's own. Supposedly the Fairey Swordfish that delivered the torpedos to the stern of the Bismark flew slower than the aiming equipment on the Bismark could compute.

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    1. Oh, my. Now there's a attack tactic I'd brag about. But then again, at that speed, just point directly at them and shoot.

      That having been said, They were brave in taking the fight to the enemy and it worked, so who's to argue with success.

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    2. Yep. WSF has it right. The Germans assumed that the Brits would put a next-gen torpedo bomber on their air craft carriers. Instead they got the Fairey which barely broke 180mph.

      A classic failure of design parameters affecting the engineering outcome.

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    3. That reminds me of the slow North Korean biplanes, similar to the depiction in MASH. They flew slow and didn't carry much bombload. So many fighters (and pilots) were lost trying to shoot down such a slow target that they gave up trying - the attempt cost more than the effects of the bombing did.

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    4. More on what Well Seasoned Fool said.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTO3JagV8gE



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    5. Johnathan,
      I've mentioned the AN-2 Colt in other posts. We practiced against it on virtually every simulator ride we took as there was nothing we had operational that could emulate its flight characteristics. However, once we got behind it, it was toast. Big radial engine, hot exhaust, Aim-9M....The problem was losing it in the ground clutter as you were halfway through the turn. Then not picking it up again until inside min range. It wasn't a bombload we were worried about it was NORK special forces on board that made it a priority target.

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    6. John,
      Interesting video, Thanks

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  6. It's going to be up to 70 today here in the Gunshine State, but the creaking of glaciers will be heard over the following three days as nighttime temps will drop into the 30's and daytime temps in the 50-60s range. Brrrr.

    Still not cold enough to break out socks or long pants. Maybe have to double up on the t-shirts...

    As to the other topic, well, speed is the answer, isn't it.

    Go faster than the guy can track, or if you're the guy tracking, shoot/aim faster than the air-guy can travel or change headings.

    The first hypersonic shoulder-mounted SAM will be a major game changer. Slow boost phase like the javelin, then "Booom" Mach 4-5-6 within 100'. There are plans out there. Just not practical yet.

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    1. Oh, man, that last would make things very ugly now wouldn't it? Course throughout history, for every change there's been a reciprocal change. I believe a hypersonic shoulder launched SAM would result in the development of the ASWYWD (pronounced Ashwood). This of course is a verbally launched Ultra-Hypersonic missile travelling at Light Speed. The verbal launch command? Aw S4!t, Wish You were dead! The Air Force has been working on it for at least 40 years (since I was in my first defensive fight in an airplane.)

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    2. If we could do it with a 30' anti-ballistic missile using late 60's tech in the late 60's and early 70's, well, in this era of micro-miniaturization and new construction methods, well, it is just around the corner.

      Of course, the answer would be the autonomous wingman for the fighter pilot would have some sort of hypersonic rocket-assisted shotgun slug... which would be countered by the 3-shot SAM, which would be countered by... Some special forces dude sneaking up behind the ground shooter and popping some silenced caps into his buttocks...

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    3. LL would approve of the SF dude sneaking up.

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  7. Don't like listening to the heavy breathing of our young warriors. Have already heard enough and generated some of my own. Glad of the outcome. I can barely keep up with all of the info presented in the heads up display. Where was the "weapons select" in the electric airplane? Still a dogbone?
    Sweetened Ice Tea here on the beach, BUT, at your recommendation, I will try the other. Sugar or black? Inquiring minds need to know. How much Bushmills?

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    1. Yeah, that tape makes my stomach muscles tense up. The HUD took some getting used to, but you would pick it up pretty quick. IIRC the Dive angle gradients in the Eagle pointed towards the horizon the steeper the angle the steeper your climb or dive angle. That made it real easy to figure out. Heading was easy also. Airspeed/Altitude, took a bit more head's in time, although I got to the point where I could get within about 20 Knots just on feel. Altitude, my MK1 eyeball was worth more than the altimeter in a fight.

      As for Coffee, Per WSF's recommendation I've started with a tsp of honey, to help with hay fever. Bushmills, none in the morning. As required in the evening.

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    2. Roger THAT on the heavy breathing guys, so much for Father Time eh sports-fans? :) Don''t know about you, Dave but if I'd had my way I'd have had the WRCS selector in the F-4 welded to bombs, ripple. :) And the ZSU-23-4? NASTY piece of work. ONLY consolation to fall back on was the fervently hoped-to-be-true "Big Sky Theory" maxim. (I can joke....now)

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    3. Dang, I was just thinking about you today Virgil, hadn't heard from you lately. Good to see you're still feisty!

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    4. PS: And we didn't always put a lot of flak supression in--especially if they were a gang that couldn't shoot straight like one gun crew protecting the Ban Laboy Ford over in Laos which we used to visit often. Why kill them? And risk a replacement crew that could shoot straight? :) vx

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    5. VX,
      Glad to hear from you again.
      Re: Switches. Don't know about the F-16, but the HOTAS (hands on throttle and stick) design in the Eagle made switchology very easy. It was a rarity to make any switch changes involving weapons employment that wasn't on those devices. Even Radio and Squawk was just below the HUD, so no heads down time.
      Re: Laos. VX, I see your point. Keep the "Gang that couldn't shoot straight" in operation for your own longevity. Do you suppose they were smart enough to figure that out and shot badly in a strategic longevity frame?

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  8. 26 degrees outside in our part of DFW as I type this at noon.

    That doesn't sound like Reagan narrating that flak film. I tried to find a link to a film about the Hollywood production unit in WWII, but my YouTubefu was weak. In this particular film, they show how a giant scale model of Japan was built in a warehouse, with a gimbaled camera on a track overhead. The purpose was to make "real time" movies of the route for B-29 crews flying upcoming missions. Reagan narrated those films, along with many others, obviously.

    I've always enjoyed the movie "flight of the Intruder". What's your take on the shoot down scenes?

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    1. Didn't sound like Mr. Reagan to me as well. Hhmm...

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    2. Maybe not, he did a lot of those films and I...well you know about assume!

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  9. As far as the video of the Shilka firing without the radar dish up - at the speeds involved, manual firing almost certainly means the aircraft got away.
    It is my understanding that jet aircraft at any speed move too fast at low altitude for manually aimed weapons to keep up.

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    1. Yeah, if you're slewing, you're going to have to be really lucky. It's better to have the guns already lined up on where you want to hit him, start firing well before he gets there and keep firing until he passes.

      Sorry for mangling your name on the previous comment.

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    2. That's why all the AA guns were removed from the Iowa-class Battleships. They simply couldn't hit jets, and the manpower cost was deemed unjustified.

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    3. Hmmm, that's interesting. The video that John posted at 10:59 had some interesting reasons on why none of the Swordfish were shot down, not the least of which was the 3 angle pitch changes that the ship (aka Gun platform) was undergoing while trying to figure out the target's maneuvering. Gyro stabilizing is obviously part of the solution, but I'm not an engineer so don't know if that would be effective enough to eliminate/minimize the error induced. Obviously in the Iowa class, not. Nowadays??

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  10. Another fascinating post! Hmm...do I sense an "AAA Week" coming? Maybe a "Mobile AAA Week"?

    When I worked for Hughes, the group I was in worked on an improved seeker for the TOW to give it "Fire-and-Forget" capability. Not sure what ever happened to that project, but it was fun watching the films from the tests.

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    1. Since Sarge does most of the heavy grunt work on posting around here, AAA Week would have to be an executive decision by him.

      I was never particularly fond of anything I had to remain attached to for Time of Flight, including the AIM-7. Didn't have much choice, but that TOF can be an eternity (sometimes literally) in a full on furball.

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    2. Though I am not, by AFSC, a fighter pilot, I still have a deep and abiding "dislike" for damn near all surface to air weapons platforms. Even the friendly ones can be a PITA (ask the paratroopers going into Sicily about that).

      So I'm not sure that's going to happen anytime soon. It would also tend to put Juvat off his feed and we can't do that, his Honey Do list is far too long, I'm sure.

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    3. Attitude, Sarge, it's an attitude.

      As for "off his feed"....I'd just HiSS in the comments. I'll be fine, just letting off steam.

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  11. with engagement radius around 3km, and small calibre shells flying arounf 1000m/s lead time (and time for plane to make any evasion is 2-3 seconds...)
    automatic radar-tracking firehoses like Shilka and US M-163 are point defences, but that point is very dangerous for any planes
    oh and if you hated Shilka, you will become Sith when you see Tungiska, it's Russian replacement
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2K22_Tunguska
    2x30mm for extra lethality, slap on pair of quad SAM launchers to give 2 in 1 experience

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    1. Sounds formidable. However, this site says the gunner has to keep the optical site on the target for Time of Flight of the missile in order for it to guide. If true, that would be a fairly hefty limitation.

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    2. Always take the Russian tech claims with a grain of salt or some vodka or both...

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    3. Yes. Read recently they had hypersonic cruise missiles or something.

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  12. AAA is NEVER fun, especially when you're not expecting it... And yeah, that 16 driver was a 'tad' busy there for a few minutes! Re the iced coffee... You heathen! Coffee is served HOT! Sigh... LOL

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    1. Yeah, Flak traps accounted for a bunch of losses. Best reason in the world to vary your approach and exit routes, wouldn't you agree, LBJ? Lyndon? Lyndon?

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    2. Actually that was McNamara. "Cheaper" flight path due to direct approach. Saved gas... sigh... And if they flew the same route, there wasn't an issue with 'approval' from on high.

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  13. juvat: One of your best posts IMNSHO.

    Thanks for the post.
    Paul L. Quandt

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    1. Thanks, Paul. I appreciate that accolade.

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  14. Ditto Paul. Every video on the post was a 500 error for me. I guess I'll have to do my homework instead of reading over Juvat's shoulder.

    Neighbor!!! You left your gate open... Brrrrr....... It's so cold, it's squeezing the water out of me......

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    1. STxAR,
      I'm not sure I understand. The video's errored out on you?

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  15. I have a very high level of emotional hatred for russian AAA especially 100mm. it is accurate and very persistent shit. it fuck up too many of my airplanes. one of my pilots made killing them his personal specialty and mission. always volunteered for SEAD missions. those F105 came back perforated and leaking everywhere. twice he came back in a helio. we met on his third tour. warrior. always showed us his film. he survived.

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    1. F-105 Pilots, in general, and Weasel Pilots specifically are held in very high regard around here. There are a few pictured on this page. I'm gratified your friend survived.

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Just be polite... that's all I ask. (For Buck)
Can't be nice, go somewhere else...

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