Guest Post - Ukraine: The View from Poland

Kyiv
(Source)

The following take on the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 comes from our friend in Poland, Paweł Kasperek.

Hello everyone and welcome to weekly "Ewok Report" from as-close-to-Ukraine as you can get before being shot at.

Here, I have done that. Hat tip to Jawa Report website ... 

So, here we are, 3 days counting to full month and were discovering ourselves in something akin to the Groundhog Day - Russians still haven't taken Kharkiv, Kyiv , Cherkassy or even Mariupol, and they got captured airfield at Kherson bombed/artillery-ed into oblivion.

Ukrainians have only forces enough for local counterattacks, but they exact heavy toll on the Russians - in my estimates, up to 30k total in KIA, WIA and MIA (captured and desertions).

That is, about 30% of the initial invading forces.

Including like 5 generals killed ...

... and even one senior naval officer.

Lets compare the results with benchmark for East Europe conquest, German attack on Poland in 1939:

By that D+28 Germans were mopping up last vestiges of the resistance and negotiating surrender of Warsaw.

And they got similar number of own casualties, but with order of magnitude, at least, more own forces involved. Invasion of Poland, check casualties section

So, Russian conquest of Ukraine spectacularly has bogged down. Quite literally because Rasputitsa/General Mud  - is in full effect by late March. Compare timetable of certain other battle for Kharkiv, 1943 (Manstein himself could not fight mud ...)

While there are many more paved roads than in 1941, what Russians advances are making , is contained to them. And Ukrainian light infantry maneuvres around them thru countryside, using whatever forests, villages and towns in the way for cover.

Our good net-neighbour Sal has a coverage of one such local battle.

With that kind of losses, it appears Putin has gone full Stansfield.

Recruiting Syrian fighters from Assad, emptying far-flung garrisons from all over the empire's 11 time zones, and even recreating the 1905 Baltic Fleet voyage in reverse.

Brits hide your fishing boats!

Polish, Slovenian and Czech Prime Ministers visited Kyiv under fire, showing that while not ready to send troops they are ready to put some personal risks to at least bolster morale of the defenders.

When speaking of the aid, instead of spectacular and flashy but limited usefulness fighter jets, small and medium  drones seem to be the way. IDK if Turkey is following with more TB2 deliveries, but US is sending own small drones.

Russians have been, tellingly, sending only missiles to try and intercept any help coming thru Lviv area. Seems their planes just don't feel safe enough over this part of Ukraine.

Which leads me to another part of the puzzle. It seems Belarus while being forced to be host nation for invaders, is in no mood to take any active part despite whatever its dictator could wish. The troops just wont go... And Russians seem to not have enough troops (yet) to make a thrust south from Belarus along Polish border to cut off the supply stream of NATO weapons ...

I think the center of gravity for Ukrainians holds firmly so far. Russian COG being the propaganda-brainwashed citizenry at home, I am expecting it would take more dead bodies, in the realm of few dozens thousands to force some kind of revolt against Putin.

Contrary to many pundits I don't look much forward to the palace coup alone, since the people close to Putin are basically his clones in thought at least. But if popular revolt looms someone might take the risk..

Though, even such theoretically positive outcome is fraught with risks:  revolution, coup or even civil war in nuclear superpower? Yikes ... But still preferable to active war with NATO. And given that Russians switching tactics to just shelling general enemy direction - with civilians included, eventually that would happen. When some sort of civilian casualties threshold is crossed  be it 200 thousands or half million, or million - wrath of the public opinion will force politicians hand all across the West.

See you (hopefully) next week...

 

Sarge: Behave yourselves, you know who I mean.

Caveat: I have grave reservations about getting involved in this war. It ain't our fight. My sympathies lie with those who are dying. On both sides.