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Hello from the forests of Eastern Endor - well, Europe ...
This is
Paweł from Ewok Report, and another instalment of Chronicles of the
Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022.
I was just
about to short write the episode: nothing new, both forces still preparing for
the major Donbas battle ...
Then
suddenly 2 big news occurred almost at once:
First,
another big package of help was announced from US DOD:
I guess the
Mi-17s were planned for AFG but events kinda closed off this usage ...
Well, I
think Ukrainians will use the help much better than Afghanistan ever did.
Second,
Russian Slava-class CG Moskva has been severely damaged off Ukraine's coast:
While
accidental magazine explosions are not unheard of (IJN lost BB Mutsu that way
in 1943, USN probably had the same fate meet BB Maine in an event that helped
trigger American-Spanish War of 1898, and USS Iowa had close call with 1989
turret explosion) Ockham's Razor tells me that during wartime enemy action is
much more likely cause of ship loss ...
So, score one
for the Ukrainians - revenge for the Snake Island has been served.
Wouldn't like to be in the shoes of the commander of Black Sea Fleet right now ...
Mind you, this is second biggest surface warship sunk since WW2 ... and ARA General Belgrano was bigger by only few tons, while being completely obsolete by time of Falklands War.
(Subs are
separate category of risk and even USN lost 2 SSN during cold war.)
Also, there
was this rumor that looks kinda more credible now:
I presume
good Cdr Salamander will have more info soon.
Ewok out,
until next week ...
Thanks Pawel! I added my $.02 about Slava in the earlier post. And yes the aid is going to a less-corrupt client than the MI-17's were headed for. Given our own current state of corruption, I'm not sure I should even make that last comment.
ReplyDeleteBoat Guy
Well Putin certainly has that same death stare that Vader had......wonder if anybody will leak sat photos?
ReplyDeleteThanks Pawel. It certainly could have been missiles - Occam's razor and all - but if some of the supply issues that seem to be manifesting themselves are true (and usually such issues do not happen in isolation), an accident is also a possibility. Given the prevalence of the current video capture, one would have guessed in the event of missiles, there would be video.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that the Russians would rather admit incompetence on their part rather than admit the Ukrainians had pulled off a rather sharp operation. I wonder if we (the west) will now look at how we evaluate our intelligence systems work as the ability of the Russians has been over rated and that of the Ukrainians underrated.
DeletePutin now seems to have gone full Stalin 1942 in his response, Shoigu, the Russian defence minister has suffered a 'non natural heart attack' and reportedly Admiral Igor Osipov has been arrested www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/captain-russian-flagship-moskvas-killed-26720452. I wonder how long this will last before Putin has a 'health problem'?
Retired
When you consider the number of intelligence systems that we have and that they are all fighting for a piece of the budget, it makes sense that they are going to parrot what the people controlling that budget want to hear.
ReplyDeleteEvery time I read something about this fight, I have to wonder, what's the point? What does Putin expect to gain? There's more to this than meets the eye.
ReplyDeleteIt is similar to Germany in WW2, revenge for previous lost war (cold war one, so to say...)
DeleteJust as Hitler gleefully did dictate the 1940 armistice to French in same railroad car that hosted 1918 armistice, at same railroad junction in Compiegne, he hoped to get revenge for 1989-91 and fall of the Soviet Empire.
It never occured to him that the empire fell due to nations wanting to break free, not due to some CIA plot of comsic proportions - after all he spent his entire KGB career trying to undermine NATO.
He lacks the means to do so, but was probably been fed info that reinforced his own vision, of weak decadent West and "Nazi Ukraine"
One of downsides of being dictator is that you dont really get to hear news you dont want to hear...
I hope we're sending that aid via FedEx or Amazon. USPS would be far too slow to help the Ukrainians as the Russians come back rested and rearmed. They need the aid quick for it to be effective and prevent further genocide. I have to wonder where this is going for Putin. Fight until all his Army is dead or captured, and UKR is laid to waste? What then? Go back and be a leader of Russia on the world stage, or will he be a dictator that has to hide from the world?
ReplyDeletehttp://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/04/fullbore-friday_15.html and as expected good commander sends his comment on the events
ReplyDeletegood read!