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Hello, this
is Paweł from Ewok Report, and here is what I have to deliver this week on the
Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022.
First of
all, the much awaited Russian offensive in the East is about to commence, with
artillery barrages on the frontline and missile attacks aimed at rear areas
presumably to disrupt reinforcements and resupply:
Second, a
nice analysis of how and why of the Moskva sinking came to be appears here:
https://www.engineerine.com/2022/04/this-is-how-ukrainian-neptune-missiles.html?m=1
S-300 and
the Osa seem to have minimal usage ceiling set to 25m, to prevent waves from
triggering proximity fuses, presumably.
So this
means only point defense AK-630 guns were able to try and stop sea skimming missiles approaching below 10m.
Also, note
that all the systems fire control radars
seem to be one-hemisphere at a time, so if everybody was "watching
to the starboard", the backboard would be open for strike ...
This means
TB-2 distraction is at the least, very plausible.
And for
AK-630 fire, fast sea skimmers had only
like, 9-6seconds time window to be
killed ...
Note that
unlike R2D2 Phalanx , AK-630 use central fire guidance, not autonomous own
radar, so if that was looking other way... OOPS...
And our
amphibian friend, Cdr Salamander has interesting breakdown of who is doing what
to help Ukraine:
http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/04/who-is-doing-what-to-help-ukraine.html
Note
especially the "by percentage pf
GDP" graph.
Poland and
Baltics are not surprise, considering they are next on the "hit
list" if Ukraine falls ...
But Sweden?
It isn't even member of NATO.. Yet. Although this might just be changing soon -
but Finland seems poised to go ahead first:
Germany ,
unsurprisingly is dead last...
Very interesting link to that engineering site Pawel. Also, the GDP graph was eye-opening. Wonder if there are enough ship survivors and will it take a post-Putin era before facts come out on the Moskva sinking?
ReplyDeletePawel, one thing this conflict seems to be fleshing out in the longer term is how a variety of weapons systems function in a way we have not seen before (as others have noted, when was the last time a warship was sunk as an act of war?).
ReplyDeleteA question: Assuming "this ends" one way or the other. What do you perceive the revised situation in your neck of the woods will look like? There will be observations about the amount of support received from "The West" (as noted on the nifty graph); any sense of how this might change Central Europe's view and position on the world?
OOF - that is a big question, since much things can change yet.
DeleteMuch depends on how the war will end, what course will pursue western EU countries, US, and Anglo-sphere (UK, Canada, Australia...)
For example Germany might win back some respect if it cuts definitely oil and gas trade with Russia and opens more help to Ukraine.
One thing is certain, everyone is back to a variation of NATO original goals: keep Russians out, Americans in, and Germans- onboard...
Another should be obvious - democracies in toto need to take control of Russian and Chinese bribery machines luring politiicans with cash (Marine LePen blatantly took cheap credits in Russian banks) and lucrative synecures in retirement - across EU, dozens of former ministers sit in councils of various Russian-related enterprises. What is even more dangerous, Russians seem to be quite welcoming to all political colours of spectrum, they demand only being support to their imperial policy. Old communists were much more discerning and were not able to offer such positions because they had no corporations nor much interchangeable cash at hand (which we should work tomade reality again).
German political class reacting to extent of Russian influence agents among them:
https://youtu.be/HMIyDf3gBoY
Should US for some reason or another withdraw from Europe, this means every state for itself.
Expect everyone having land borders with Russia, or within Russian striking distance, who can afford it, start crash nuclear weapons programs.
Nonproliferation will become history.
With much more nuclear actors on the map, this will be a case of not if but when some conflict turns into nuke-tossing.
And then there are East Asia nations who would do same vis a vis China, starting with Japan which has quite large fissile materials stockpile...
"...take control of Russian and Chinese bribery machines..." Excellent observation, sir! All those who take such bribes are guilty of Treason, and should be hanged by their scrawny little necks until they are long since dead. (Leave them hanging a loooong time after, as a lasting example of what is not acceptable!)
DeleteExcellent reporting and links, Pawel. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteCheers Pawel
ReplyDeletePs. There has been quite a lot of Polish Air Force C130 activity over my house. Surprise surprise !😉
DeleteThanks for updating us, Paweł! It's good to have multiple eyes on this situation.
ReplyDeleteRussia is raising a "point of order".
ReplyDeleteIt is now doing so in a language any moron can understand.
Western media attribute this to elves or zombies because they're completely clueless.
It is a simple manifestation of State Power acting in its own interest when every other measure failed.
This is the Gununga Gap.
Only the most clueless inept ignorant jackasses would prattle about Putin this or that.
To quote Leonides, "THIS IS SPARTA!!!!"
I'm still amused that people don't understand this.
OTOH, I don't live in DC or NYC and Putin isn't likely to waste a nuke on Cleveland