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Praetorium Honoris

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Ukraine - The View from Poland

(Source)
Editor's Note: This post was submitted by our Polish correspondent Paweł Kasperek. His thoughts and opinions on the matter do not necessarily match my own. Editorial changes were made to correct grammar, spelling, and use American English (a pox on that extra "u"). English is not Paweł's native tongue, but his English is way better than my (non-existent) Polish. With that being said, take it away Paweł ...

Things are accelerating again.

After a somewhat static late spring and summer, the war in Ukraine has suddenly picked up speed. First, in an event reminiscent of Black Day of Imperial German Army (Amiens), Ukrainians counterattacked in the east of Kharkiv, liberating in a week of swift strikes more land than Russians managed to crawl into during the past 4 months in the Donbas. (and discovering, as in Bucha, mass graves ...) Then they started rolling up the Kherson bridgehead, in a deadly one-two punch that caught the Russian Army off-guard. (Russian pullback.)

Putin reacted by declaring mass mobilization order, which has officially been only partial, but in rural, and especially ethnic minority areas amounted to total, with some villages being half-emptied of any men between 18 and 60. This prompted a mass flight of Russian men to neighboring countries, be it Finland, Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and even Mongolia (!).  Those wealthy enough, bought out tickets to places like Turkey or India, before they were sold out at astronomical prices. Simultaneously, Putin announced (and at lightning-fast  speed executed) four sham referendums in the four provinces of Ukraine held, or partially held by Russia. Apart from voting at gunpoint, and a ludicrous 90 percent plus support claimed, the very fact that Russia doesn't even control most of the land in the Kherson and Zaporozhe regions means it was just a formality to mask a decree by Putin. But it had a twofold legal meaning for those who accepted them: first, since they were part of Russia now, they were places where freshly mobilized manpower could be legally employed. Second it would fall into Russian military doctrine clause of using nukes for defence of homeland if it was in dire threat. Veiled nuclear threats followed soon after. (Russian mobilization.)

Then, in another escalatory measure, someone blew up both Nord Stream pipelines, making the return to pre-war gas exports levels to EU pretty much impossible. Russians were quick to blame Ukrainians and the US, while most of the Western world accused Russia. I will let you decide, but IMHO it is much more likely that it was Russian job, for simple reason that no US government would risk the blowback of such operation. (Navigation warnings re: Nord pipeline.)

Finally just as Putin has been celebrating 70th birthday, someone (Ukraine did not claim responsibility, but had not hidden their joy) blew up half of the bridge spanning the Kerch strait separating Crimea from mainland Russia. This was something Ukrainians wanted to do for a long time, and here their action timed perfectly as birthday candles ...  so I am 100% sure it was their action. Looks like vehicle borne explosives. (Kerch bridge destruction.)

So, all in all things have been accelerating since the start of September and the  trajectory is not looking good. Mass mobilized Russian troops are under-equipped, under-trained, and will probably take massive losses.

This picture of Putin's Volkssturm is worth thousand words. (You'll have to chase the link due to copyright. - Ed)

Apparently some units have been receiving footwraps¹ due to a lack of socks.  Protective gear² is lacking, weapons outdated, and training almost nonexistent from 2 days to week before sent off to the front

Infrastructure is being targeted outside of the immediate conflict area. Nuclear sabre rattling is getting noisier and noisier. Russian 101st KGB (Keyboard Guards Brigade³) is calling for massive attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, which might be undoable because Russia is running out of cruise missiles, and their airpower never managed to become an effective deep strike force, and overall precision of their munitions is sorely lacking.

Unless they turn to nukes since they don't need accuracy ...



¹ Socks are a relatively new thing in the Russian Army.
² Nuclear, biological, and chemical protective gear.
³ I have no idea what this is. Sarcasm maybe?
⁴ Um, well ... Any use of nuclear weapons crosses a threshold which the Soviets and their Russian successors don't recognize. In terms of Western thought, a nuke is a nuke is a nuke, size DOES NOT MATTER. Traditional Western theory is that ANY use of nuclear weapons will trigger a massive, strategic response. It's all part of that Mutual Assured Destruction thing. Do I think the current "leaders" of the West would follow through on that? Ask the Afghans what they think of Western resolve, there's your answer. I'm sure Putin doesn't think they would either. Else he'd keep his nuclear sword in its scabbard.

49 comments:

  1. Thanks Pawel for the concise summation and thanks Sarge for posting it. Would like to hear from Pawel about how Poland has been/is reacting to this war on their border.

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  2. Thank you Pawel. Seconding the ask for insight into what is happening on the ground in Poland (or wherever your particular patch of Poland is). One thing that is sorely missing here is the insight into what is actually going on in Europe on the ground where we common folk tend to dwell.

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    1. Paweł is in the Gdansk region as I recall.

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    2. We’ve had quite a bit of input re Poland here in U.K. but I won’t say anymore on this or any other medium. (Hogday)

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    3. Thank you Sarge. That is a helpful geographic marker. I do remember him speaking about German shoppers at one point, which now makes sense.

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  3. Yes, sarcasm. Like references to the 101st Keyboard Commandos. Love the reference to the Volkssturm.

    I also thought that part of the reason for the sham referenda was to get around the law prohibiting the use of conscripts outside of Russia.

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    1. Okay, went over my head at first. Good point on the referenda, I hadn't thought of that.

      Yes, the Volkssturm reference was particularly on point.

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    2. Do not sign anything written in Russian unless you have a trusted interpreter

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    3. Applies to signing anything in a language in which you are not fluent. Applies to documents in English as well, most of the stuff is lawyer-speak so you need to be careful.

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    4. Anonymous - how about just "Do not sigh anything written in Russian by the Russian government."? They are as bad as the BATFE for 'changing' their minds after action or inaction has been taken (see the bumpstock debacle...)

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    5. Bear in mind that the BATFE is about as unconstitutional an outfit as you can find. Too bad DC is full of soulless bureaucrats and petty party politicians who have never read the Constitution. Yet they swore an oath to uphold it. Criminals all.

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    6. Sign anything they want. Just don't sign your real name....

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  4. Thanks Pawel. I look forward to your posts. Thanks to you, too, Sarge for posting them here. Everyone stay sane, if you can, in this crazy world.

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    1. I do what I can, Paweł felt another post on the situation in Ukraine was overdue, he was right.

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  5. "These are the times that try men's souls...."

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  6. No one has been able to pinpoint the US strategic national interest in the Ukrainian fiasco.

    Pawel notes sham referendums for portions of the Ukraine voting to join Russia. What happened to the Minsk Agreements? Were they sham agreements? What happened to the US/NATO Flank Treaty? Was that a sham treaty? The requirements were to take disputes to diplomatic resolutions not to start a shooting conflict. What happened to the UN being tasked to resolve those diplomatic issues that were not solved?

    Before we start casting mass grave accusations, we have to understand that neutral observers noted massive deaths of civilians killed by Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is not just Russia, Russia, Russia. There is plenty of blame to go around to all involved including the US/NATO forces actively engaged in this conflict.

    Even more important is to consider what is behind the actual conflict. Before Putin's speech prior to the shooting, Zelenskyy said he was rearming the Ukraine with nukes. That thought is directly against all the treaties, agreements and accords since the end of the Cold War. Also, we need to consider the financial incentives behind starting a conflict in Europe -- such as the insolvency of European pension funds, national bonds not selling and other red flag financial problems in the European monetary system.

    The bottom line we must ask ourselves is: What is the US national strategic interest in the Ukraine?

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    1. I would refer you to European history. Wars fought there by major powers never seem to stop at the first country conquered. Putin has openly spoken of retaking the land held by the USSR/Russian Empire. Which includes nations that are now NATO members.

      We can stop Putin's Russia now or stop them later. Later has proven to be always more expensive in blood and treasure. Right now, the Ukrainians are willing to do the fighting if only we can give them the tools that they need. My belief is that if the warheads aren't fissile, chemical or biological. we should give them to the Ukrainians.

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    2. And, sad to say, raping, mass executions or killings of civilians and other war crimes are all things Russia has always done. And any international accords, treaties, agreements are always one sided. Remember, dealing with Russians (Czarist, Soviet or 'free' Russians) has always been like dealing with Klingons or Native Americans. What is written and agreed upon has no value except to hinder the non-Klingon/NatAmer/Russian/Nork/Red China/Insert evil country name....

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    3. Good questions all. Russia is still undeniably the bad guy, they rolled over an international border with troops, tanks, artillery, and attack aircraft. They are in the wrong. Ukraine is certainly no angel.

      What is the US national strategic interest? Hard to say, is that consideration even relevant any more? Was it oil in Kuwait and Iraq? What was it in the Balkans? Is it a realization that the UN is an empty threat to aggressive nations and that the USA is actually the guarantor of international peace? I don't have the answers to any of those questions.

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    4. CM - Putin is the aggressor here, no doubt about it. Your point about conflicts in Europe is a shack..

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    5. Beans - All that aside, all nations have war crimes on their souls.

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    6. Ah, it's aviation lingo, direct hit. A "shack" is a good thing.

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    7. CM, what is the US strategic national interest for stopping Russia from enforcing the Minsk treaties after 8 years of Ukrainians shelling their own people in the eastern areas?

      Why does the US have to be involved?

      Saying the US must take action now or later is similar to the failed climate action folks with 50 years of not a single prediction coming true. I was looking for solid answers as to why the US must be involved.

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    8. Beans, the Russians are the ones enforcing the treaties right now and the US/NATO forces are breaking them. Did you look at the Swedish report concerning a Rand Corporation White Paper showing how the US can take control of Europe again and gain oodles of bucks?

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    9. Sarge, Putin is not really the aggressor. That is how the western media puts it, but Russia is following the treaties and accords while we are making things up on the fly and violating them repeatedly.

      Strategic interests really matter now because the Ukraine mess is a direct outcome of attempting to force Russia into a war so as to destroy it and break it up into tiny pieces allowing the US to steal all the goodies. Who profits with the Nord Stream gas out of circulation? The Germans were in diplomatic talks with Russia to start buying gas again in violation of the US demanded sanctions. Rand Corporation in 19 or so put out a paper detailing how to destroy Russia along another paper how to cripple and rebuild Europe with another Marshal Plan allowing the US to reap huge bucks.

      Back to work for me. There is lots more to this than meets the eye. Thanks for a nice blog.

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    10. I see your points Dave, but from what I've read, those treaties were repudiated by Russia. I guess I missed the reports of Ukrainian tanks invading Russia. Putin is in the wrong, his own people aren't supporting his efforts to remake the Russian Empire.

      You do make some interesting points though, I'll need to dig deeper.

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  7. Thanks, Pawel. I hope some sanity enters the situation as soon as the snow starts falling, but I am not optimistic. Even if Russia doesn't go tactical nuclear, they're still most likely going for a scorched earth situation whenever they can. As stated above, it's what Russia has always done.

    Sad to see children playing with explosives in this modern world. But I guess Putin and all the other oligarchs had to do something before the nation fell into obscurity, between falling birth rates and rampant emigration. And Red China is there, eyeing those lands in Russia's East that are so full of space and resources. That's the next one I expect, even before a potential move on Taiwan. Go north quickly right before winter, consolidate over winter, move west in the spring.

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    1. Russia is kind of f**ked, aren't they?

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    2. I keep hearing that, every other day it seems, they're out of soldiers, out of ammo, etc and they "energizer bunny" on down the road. I quit listening to that. Our politicians have massive investments in the Ukraine: bio-labs working on things we officially don't work on, children of our highest office holders making huge money on local corporate boards, and God only knows what else. I am very hesitant to believe anything I hear anymore, since truth doesn't seem to the be the motivation of our politicians, media, government or education. I have to find three or more trustworthy witnesses to even begin to pay much attention to news items.

      We have played fast and loose with our position in the world. We have not kept our word, even to our friends. We have been reckless and feckless in our international dealings.

      The inviolable rules of sowing and reaping are you reap AFTER you sow and you reap MORE than you sow, and you reap WHAT you sow. I hate to say it, but we are only beginning to reap the whirlwind. Who said "it is dangerous to be our enemy, but it is DEADLY to be our friend"?

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    3. I think November might be our last chance, if we just exchange one group of crooked politicians for another, then we're screwed. As is the rest of the world.

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    4. As odd a statement as this will sound from a 50+ year old man, I am honestly tired of waking up every morning with the fear in my heart that something awful has started, something that cannot be stopped. I never imagined that, 30 years post Cold War, we would be here.

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    5. Takes me back to the Cuban Missile Crisis, I don't like that. Now I kind of know what the folks in Europe felt like in the early summer of 1914.

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  8. Some answers and clarifications:
    Generally,, attitude in Poland is "If Ukraine falls, we are next". Some extreme fringe right wingers and left wingers take Putins side, but those are like, extreme of the extreme wing types- minority within a minority.
    Another consensus is, get ourselves ready for worst case while hoping for best. Crash armament procurement, centered on South Korean tanks, artillery and light fighters is underway to augment US-made buys negotiated earlier.
    Protective gear shortages include apparently not only NBC, but personal armor, and in some cases even helmets.
    101st KGB is pun on the name of the infamous secret police and refers to Russian (and pro-Russian) online commentariat. I follow few of those just to see how much detached from reality are they...
    As for the nukes usage, Putin has very few escalatory steps left without using them, which worries me severely.
    His semi-professional army got defeated in the field, and it seems on verge of further defeats,
    His mass conscripts probably wont fare any better, with lack of officers to train them (heavy losses in the officer corps), modern equipment - and to a degree, heavy equipment at all - to use, and usual Russian logistic woes.
    Last wave of cruise missile and drone attacks seems to lack any specific strategy except terror killing of civilians. and destroying civilian infrastructure. Definitely not most effective way of waging war, as Goering and "Bomber" Harris proved in the WW2.
    Basically it only makes Ukrainians hate Russians more, while doing nothing to stop defeats in the field. Similar to V-weapons usage in 1944...
    Plus, there is only so much cruise missiles Putin has, and he eventually will run out of all but nuclear-tipped reserve.
    I dont see Russia winning this conventionally in the long term. And I dont see Russia accepting defeat, since their jingoistic megalomania was pushed into them ever since Putin took over...

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    1. Bombing civilian populations to break their morale has a piss-poor track record of working. The Russians have done more to cement Ukrainian national identity than any Ukrainian politician could have hoped to have done.

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  9. Thanks for the update! Interesting 'differences' from the MSM spew...

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  10. Whether or not Mr. Putin's boys are committing every war crime in the book, I'd still like to know why we're getting involved; are people remembering Lebensraum and "if only we'd gotten involved before the Little Corporal ..."
    Sorry, Paweł but as far as I'm concerned, let the Ukranians and the Russians complete their own style of population reduction. OTOH, should Mr. Putin begin expanding into Finland...

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    1. Zelenskyy's boys are also committing every war crime in the book also. Keep that in mind as the news spouts about mass graves.

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    2. You have evidence (not from Russian propaganda outlets) to back up this claim?

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    3. Anon, neutral observers documented UAF killing civilians and others when they should not have done so. That showed up in European news this summer and should be available with a search engine other than Google.

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  11. Hard to know what to think. News media is full of liars on every issue a normal person cares about. Not able to trust any official sources.
    Paul J

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  12. Pawel is a good chap to have around. But then, he's Polish, who are always good people to have around.

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