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Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Ukraine - The View from Poland, April Update

(Source)

Ewok Report, 2nd of April 2023

Since the Russo-Ukrainian war is already over year long, I will just set a timestamp of sorts instead of parts or other points discerning episodes. This time I will be short, because of personal/family life intruding. Instead, I will relate some very interesting analyses from Perun, who has risen to be my fave analyst:

1. The economic war:


Indicates state of the economic battle, which is where West is most openly involved, both as actor and as target.

TL;DR Version:

West has survived energy imports from Russia loss much better than expected, especially much better than Putin expected. In fact it is barely even on war footing. Russia survived that decoupling and sanctions also better than West expected. Ukraine survived everything Russia threw their way and didnt collapse into blackouts and cold. 

All in all, everyone can at the very least follow up for another year or more. 

2. Russian winter offensive:


TL;DR Version:

Costly, to both sides, but definitely more so to Russian one. And bringing some small gains in scenes reminding of WW1 trench nightmare. If/when Ukrainian spring counterattack comes, it can be very costly as well.

3. Attrition and Casualties:


TL;DR Version:

Trying to estimate attrition of equipment and casualties of troops Ukrainian claims are much more in line with visually confirmed wrecks, and considering dark numbers of not photographed wrecks they might be close to reality Meanwhile Russian claims sometimes are more than entire Ukrainian inventory of the item. Human casualties might be much harder to track.

4. The Air War:


TL;DR Version:

One of biggest surprises of the war was its air component. After initial chaos and Russian failed bid for air superiority, multitude of air defence systems have in fact enforced a Mutual Air Denial - a no-mans sky over the frontline where only few planes dare to operate in low altitudes, and at high casualty costs. 

What is very important, not even delivery of Western jets is likely to change the balance much.
My addition: very significant considerations resulting from this for Taiwan. Giving Taiwan porcupine-like array of air defenses might be better investment than costly fighters - even though they might have own uses in keeping enemy at bay.

Fighting Chinese over their own turf will be probably only feasible for stealth aircraft.
Chinese attempts at airmobile landings - be it heliborne or paratroopers - are likely to end in slaughter for them. 

Final words:

I expect Ukrainian offensive in the window from late April to early summer. There's tension between giving troops time to train, often with new western equipment, and giving Russians time to entrench.

As for where the hammer will fall, I am completely not ready to predict. In fact there is much likelihood that any speculations will be wrong, and part of effort to divert best Russian troops, as it was previously when Ukraine made a big show of wanting to retake Kherson, only to strike near Kharkiv. 

That's all, folks.

Paweł aka Ewok


13 comments:

  1. Thanks for this post Pawel, those videos are loaded with info, good thing I'm retired with a little time to spare.

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    1. I found this particular analyst favoured because he does dig into stuff, crunches numbers when available and is not going for easy explanations.

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  2. Time will tell. Truth is the first casualty of war. I fear a second Afghanistan withdrawal under our current regime.

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    1. Afghanistan withdrawal was result of the original sin of that war, US-led forces being perceived by pashtun majority as invaders. Her, there are no US forces to withdraw, and locals are fighting Russian invaders. Its 1980s AFG, not 2000+

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  3. Looks like Russia thinks it is too big to fail and has definitely gone a bridge or two too far.

    I don't see Russia moving much farther west unless they go totally whole hog and use all their armed forces, which, with the ChiCom forever being unpredictable, would be a very very bad idea.

    And Ukraine doesn't have enough of anything to push Russia too far out of Ukraine. Though they have enough to wear down the Russkies, maybe.

    Then there's the little issue of Kazakstan and them seizing all the Russian assets at the Baikonur Space Port. Makes one wonder if Russia will try a two-front war to get the place back, and if they do try, what will they use?

    The real question is, well, two questions are, what will be left of Ukraine and Russia in a year? And second, when will the ChiComs jump north up the middle and cut Russia in two?

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    1. I am thinking much about Russias force in the field will depend on the results of declared 400k volunteers push. Whether they materialize, and whether they will be real volunteers or just another wave of elderly, unfit mobiks.
      Khazakhstan and other "stans" are prime poaching grounds now for Turkey and China. Look how Azerbaijan took opportunity of Russia being basically tied up in Ukraine to corner Armenia on the Nagorno-Kharabakh issue.
      Ukraine, no matter how devastated by war has set the course for EU. In whatever borders emerge. Give them 20 years of peace and they will be next Poland.
      Ah, the Chinese... imho, they will just buy out anything of value without invading. Effectively turning the Russian Far East into their resource stash.
      More concerning is the problem of succession after Putin inevitably dies - whether of natural causes or massive multi-organ lead poisoning. He has not set up any successor apparent, and this means all factions are likely to rush for Kremlin the moment he stops breathing. Watch Death of Stalin for relatively tame version of events. For worst case, imagine Game of Thrones, with nukes instead of dragons. Yikes!
      As for the factions: FSB, military, Wagner, Kadyrov and his henchmen, and plethora of local players.

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    2. Oy, when Putin loses power, either by becoming enfeebled or by dying, the power struggle will be monumental. Lots of factions lining up and playing nice right now, but it may end up splitting Mother Russia into pieces (like the aforementioned PRC doing a power/land grab.

      Even worse is if Putin dies from assassination. That will kick off an internal war that will more resemble the Russian revolution, with the same disastrous effect on the western front as in 1917.

      Read somewhere today that Poland is in for the win, and if Ukraine falls then Poland moves east. Any comments?

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    3. Well, Poland is definitely not going for the land grab in ANY case. Russians tend to bait this idea but it is just their projection of own mindset onto others.
      Europe has made immobility of borders sacrosant for a reason.
      Should they become movable by force again, there is myriad of issues potentiallly again to solve by force.
      And that includes almost half of present Poland versus Germany.
      Poland is in for the win definitely. From our own perspective, defeated Russia has chance for de-imperialization like Germany and Japan did. Make business, not war! On the flipside, victorious Russia will cast its eyes on new grounds to conquer, and Poland is next in line. When we complete transition to new US and Korean equipment, every single old soviet pattern tank, howitzer and missile launcher goes to Ukraine to help them win. And all the ammo too.

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  4. WW3 in the making, and it's Europe's fight, let them go broke keeping the Russians out.

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  5. Thanks Pawel! Greatly appreciate the nod to the Taiwan problem
    Boat Guy

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    1. interestingly enough someone in the defence pros community has gone to same conclusions as me: https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/in-defense-of-denial-why-deterring-china-requires-new-airpower-thinking/

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  6. Just a little addendum: Zelensky visited Warsaw yesterday.
    Apart from usual pomp and circumstance (he got awarded highest Polish medal, Order of the White Eagle), there were announcements : 100 wheeled , 30 mm cannon armed IFV Rosomak (Polish for Wolverine) to be produced for Ukraine, joint production line set up in Poland for 125 mm tank ammo, and that Poland has already donated 8 MiG-29 fighters.
    As any viewer of the Red Dawn , I can not miss the lampshading of Wolverines sent to fight invading Russians...
    in other news, a small tidbit that will make many old guns lovers smile:
    https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-maxim-machine-gun-russia/
    "If enemy insist on recreating Somme or Verdun, you can as well make the experience more realistic..."
    BTW, I just learned that on one day in 1916 just 4 Vickers-Maxim guns have shot over million rounds of ammo...
    It probably boiled enough water to make tea for entire battalion, I guess. Side benefit :)

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