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Hello there, and greetings from snowy European forests!
Paweł aka Ewok here, and with some updates of the frontlines of Eurasia.
Sorry for delaying the post, but I had some grave family issues (My mother died in early December), and a PC upgrade with new hard drive which took some time.
While the general stalemate on the Ukrainian front continues, we have some surprising-only-Russians Ukrainian attacks showing ingenuity of Ukrainian armed forces: Ukraine downs Russian Aircraft.
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| Beriev A-50 AWACS (Source) |
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| Il-22PP Special Mission Aircraft (Source) |
Losing AWACS and support command plane in one go, ouch. Especially with how few of those Russia has left.
Meanwhile Germans, being, well, Germans.¹ Anyone surprised?
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| Taurus KEPD 350 Cruise Missile (Source) |
And while there has been less news about Gaza since Israelis went for a steady smoking out of the Hamas nest with not much flashy headlines, another region flared up, namely Red Sea out of the coast of the Yemen.
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| HMS Diamond (Source) |
Not only Houthis have conducted so many attacks on merchant shipping in one of the busiest chokepoints of world sea traffic (around 12 percent of total global trade!) but they have engaged US and UK warships in a veritable sea battle.
US forces also conducted airstrikes on Houthi targets, but consider me skeptical of finding the right mud hut amongst hundreds of thousands.
Overall, I predict most of the shipping companies will abandon the Red Sea route and go around Cape of Good Hope instead. Costs etc., but safety first. Egypt will be badly hurt with Suez Canal income dropping. Europe will suffer some inflation. But nothing that really matters much.
And as a final candle on the New Years fireworks display, Iran got suicide bombed (what a laser guided karma!) and started an exchange of fire with Pakistan. This one can be, so to say, developing ...
So the start of 2024 is really eventful. As a final word I wish you all a boring and uneventful year ...
Paweł
¹ Editor's Note Unsurprisingly, the Poles don't much care for Germans. In case you didn't know.
My condolences on thpassing of your mother. https://youtu.be/si_H9GXuGtU?si=hz1jgF-2YJoauQ8P
ReplyDeleteGood update on the world situation.
I wonder if the German refusal to send the cruise missiles is because they don't want to diminish their stockpile in the face of possible Russian aggression.
Rather the still prevalent German pacifism.
DeleteMy condolences Pawel on the loss of your mother. Turkey launched air attacks against Kurdish rebels in Syrian and Iraq in the last week also.
ReplyDeleteMiddle east is becoming more unstable by a week. Not a day passes without someone bombing a neighbour...
DeleteSo what is your, Pawel, take on the Russian minister saying that Poland is next up on the Russian Invasion Game?
ReplyDeleteSounds like your December wasn't so cheerful. Adding you onto the prayer list.
Ukraine has been tough for the Russkies, but nothing like how hard the Poles would make it.
DeleteI hope we would not have to test it in practice...
DeleteHopefully. But it is something Putin and his 'friends' have been saying for years. I hope your current government doesn't cave to pressure and start slacking off militarily.
DeletePrayers Up Pawel for your loss.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update. It has not been a particularly cheerful December or start to the New Year.
Does it get that snowy in Poland? Central/Eastern European Winters are, in my mind, this vast period of "cold" from October to April.
I am in the mildest climate of Poland and it is barely any snow outside, but further east and in the mountains half meter deep snow and -20 celsius is common.
DeleteFor Winter, that sounds positively delightful. Thanks for the response!
DeleteMy condolences on your Mother's passing....
ReplyDeleteI looked up Eurasia, just to be sure I was understanding what you meant..
>>Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Eurasia
Eurasia from en.wikipedia.org
Eurasia is the largest continental area on Earth, comprising all of Europe and Asia. <<
In grade school I was taught that Asia & Europe were separate continents, probably easier to talk about that way.
Condolences on your loss, my friend.
ReplyDeleteVery good update to the situation, thank you for that.
Please accept my condolences as well, Pawel.
ReplyDeleteThe world continues to get spicier. Likely to continue that way.
Boat Guy
My condolences, too, Pawel. And thank you for a differently informed perspective.
ReplyDeleteAgain, the broad brush, but it seems as if the post-WWII Pax Americana* is wearing off of the world and we are reventeing to the status quo ante Sarajevo 1914.
ReplyDelete* I know, "What about (fill in the blank several times)?" But IN GENERAL the world since WWII has been overall more peaceful than before The War To End All Wars.
We kept troops in Germany for 75 years after the war.
DeletePlease accept my condolences. As for Iran and Pakistan lobbing missiles at each other, what is going on there? Apparently the Pakistanis are not very happy that their spiffy new Chinese anti-missile system did not work as advertised. The other thing is that western weapons systems/AFV's are way more effective than their Russian counterparts and those weapons supplied by the west are ones coming to the ends of their shelf lives. What happens next? No clue but can anyone see the Russians regenerating enough forces to annex the Baltics in 2025? I think we in Europe must accept we need to need to re arm and more importantly counter Russian disinformation.
ReplyDeleteRetired
My condolences as well, Pavel.
ReplyDelete(not your)uncle Skip
Just a few things to add here:
ReplyDelete1.I am sorry to report first US KIA in the Red Sea War
2 SEAL memebers died in accident while boarding Iranian transport ship bound for Yemen - and indeed carrying ammo for the Houthis.
2.I am no authority in any way, but I consider it extremely unlikely that Russia would consider invading any NATO country before finishing its business with Ukraine. Which doesnt seem likely to end fast. Even should all US and EU help cease immediately by magic, I predict it would take Russia 2-3 years of hard bloody fighting to conquer Ukraine. Russia lost about half of their tank and armored vehicles inventory and resorted to resurrecting storaged , often obsolete vehicles at very slow pace. They need to beg North Korea and Iran for ammo. When Prigozhin rebelled there was none reserves ready to stop him from his raid to Moscow. Should EU keep feeding Ukrainians at same level, I expect indefinite, bloody stalemate, which eventually will lead to Russian revolt because they will realise it is better chance to fight own state than Ukrainians. There is no telling when it will happen, after half million causalties or one million or two. It is very telling that Putin himself is very cautious with mobilization, tending to prey on likes of criminals, or ethnic minorities.
3.There have been some ominous rumblings from North Korea, including shelling of border island in South and demolition of monument to peaceful reunion. Tea leaves to read, but it could be biggest storm yet.
4.If I was Chinese, I would wait for US to commit to as many fronts as possible - and THEN invade Taiwan. Point no3 could allow just that, with implicit trade off proposal - we dont support Kim, you dont support Taiwan.
5.Last but not least, there have been consistent news of Houthis using ASBM along the more conventional antiship missiles and drones. This would suggest Chinese tech spreading, and karmically enough hurting Chinese trade.
Unless they were just lobbing old SCUD style ballistics in general target area to stretch the defenders, but I would presume US forces would be able to discern those 2 types of missiles.
Pawel- Thank you for the insights, and updates. Very helpful to get perspective from different sources and location.
ReplyDeleteCondolences on your loss.
John Blackshoe
ReplyDeletePawel, I am so sorry to hear of the loss of your Mom. I lost the BadgerMom in 2008, and miss her every day. EwokMoms are just as important. She raised a Good Son.