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Thursday, March 10, 2022

Guest Post - Ukraine: Update from Poland

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky visits positions of armed forces near the
frontline with Russian-backed separatists in Donbass region, Ukraine, on April 9, 2021.

(Source)
The following update on the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 comes from our friend in Poland, Paweł Kasperek. Take it away, Paweł ...

Today it is 2 weeks into the war and a lot of things happened ...

First things first, Russian advance (with few exceptions in the south) got bogged down in spectacular fashion. It failed to be a thunder run in the Iraq 2003 style - hell it even failed to emulate German Poland 1939 campaign. For lack of better comparison, it reminds me of the WW1 or Russo-Japanese war - a slugfest where Russians are trying to crush enemy with pure numbers and fail at that too.  One of the aspects that seems to be highlighted is the extent of corruption where everything from food supply reports to training was falsified and/or embezzled by very officers of the armed forces. It seems Russia started to requisition civilian vehicles to carry out logistics... Which will feed into civilian discontent at home probably too. (More on that aspect later)

The monstrous traffic jam north of Kiev is still in place, and with every passing day is less of Ardennes traffic jam of 1940 and more of Winter War motti¹ in the making.

Everything that could go wrong for Russia, has gone so. Logistics, morale, they even failed to make total air superiority despite huge advantages in the air. Especially helicopter losses on the Russian side seem to be huge, with few dozens at least downed, mostly by ubiquitous MANPADS², some of them Stingers, some older ex-WARPAC Strelas (Even Germany scrounged up 3500 of them from old NVA³ stores!) and quite many Polish Pioruns which were major modernisation of Soviet Strela follow up, Igla. Russian habit of launching "Apocalypse Now" style air assault on enemy airfields did not help.


Talk about getting faceful of missile!

Either Stinger or Piorun, launched fully from frontal angle into Mi-24 and killing it instantly. (Some sources told me that it had to be Piorun since Stinger has safeties that won't let it engage below certain height - but as anything told on the net, take with grain of salt). About the only front where maneuver warfare went relatively well was assault from Crimea towards Odessa, with Cherson already taken and Mikolaiv under assault.

For 2 weeks of combat, Russia has taken maybe 10 percent of Ukrainian territory, and the hold is tenuous as they lack numbers to control the countryside. They have expended around 600 missiles, ballistic and cruise, and seem to turn to indiscriminate artillery and MLRS barrages against cities since they ran out of pre-planned military targets.

Moscow claims 500 KIA, Ukrainians over 11k, my estimate is 2-3k at least which is anyway big number for 2 weeks of operations where only 150k or so troops are involved, and attrition must be even more severe at tip of the spear infantry and tank units.

Speaking of tanks, 2022 Championship in Javelin goes to Ukraine ...

Already over million people from Ukraine fled into Poland, lesser numbers to Moldova and Romania, and unsurprisingly very few into Russia. Almost no one went into Belarus :P

There is great outburst of human help from people around me, welcoming refugees, gathering food and other necessities, even in my own workplace, local supermarket.

Some of my friends from tabletop wargames club are volunteering at Red Cross.

The global sanction regime seems to gather steam, though the most serious one, to decouple from Russian gas, oil and coal will take some time to implement. Still kudos to my government which regardless of party in charge for few years already built up LNG terminal (not far from where I live) and pipeline from Norway is scheduled to start operating this year, leaving us totally independent from Russia. 

If I can ask, send letters to your congressmen/women. Get rid of any red tape to oil and gas drilling, and make export facilities to Europe. Save friend in need and make a good $$, best of 2 worlds. Even Biden has committed to stopping imports of oil which will force him to ease up on local drilling.

There are some ill-advised pushes for no-fly zone, but I am with Salamander - and many other vets - on this one this would be highway to World War.

There has been talk of giving Ukrainians ex-soviet jets still in NATO inventories, Poland after some hesitation offered to transfer 28 Mig-29s to Ramstein for refit (removal of NATO IFF and comms?) and repainting, but US side seems to get cold feet after all.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian planes, and especially drones still roam the skies and occasionally down Russian plane, or bomb a column that was short on AD⁴.

What is interesting to me is how Russians themselves will react to stream of soldiers not answering calls anymore (it seems there will be no coffins returning because mobile crematoria were supplied ...) - and not getting anymore from cornucopia of global western market of the internet, fast food, utilities, or - horrible thought - returning to Soviet times food rationing.

Putin seems to double up on repression instituting penalties like up to 15 years of prison for even calling this war a war, not "military operation". Already few thousand of people were arrested for protests and this will get only stronger the more soldiers die, the more sanctions bite and the more people realise the truth is different from TV screens of propaganda machine.

Some more mobile Russians rush for exit - via Finland for example, no doubt realising they soon can get conscripted or mobilised into the meatgrinder. I wonder how this aspect will develop ...

The worst thing is, Putin has burned every off-ramp for himself. Now he is committed to total victory, regime change and all, but doesn't seem to capable of achieving it unless going total Stalin, and even then he gets huge insurgency and North Korea level isolation. And if he loses ... Remember fate of the last Romanoff?



¹ Encirclement (Finnish)
² MAn Portable Air Defense System, MANPADS
³  NVA = Nationale Volksarmee (East German National People's Army)
⁴ Air Defense

39 comments:

  1. Thank you, Pawel. It must be uneasy to be so close to the war.
    Unfortunately, we has a very stupid, corrupt, and evil man as our President. So I expect nothing to be done by him to end the war, which is odd, considering the amount of graft he, as " the Big Guy ", received from Ukraine. I wonder who is paying him now?

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    Replies
    1. You surely know the answer to that: Xi!!!

      Delete
    2. A, Xi...one has to wonder if he's beginning to regret his promised support of everything Vlad initiates.

      Delete
  2. Thanks very much for this posting, Pawel. Do not like relying on US MSM for info from this invasion, I'd rather visit the Daily Mail website. I'd like to make a request to you and Sarge, please do this again. Having someone in Poland pass on info.......priceless.

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  3. Firestreak manpads en route fromUK, plus high speed Visa for refugees.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. To get into the US, they don't need no steenkin' visa. Just walk across the border from Mexico and speak Spanish!

      Delete
    2. Well, Sarge, he is right, after all...OK, invaders across our southern border may be detained, but they're never expected to actually go through any process, other than being given a bus or airplane ticket. It's been documented that the .gov has moved, and had 'immigrant aid' private groups move, illegal aliens through Tennessee. That's illegal according to TN state law. Shame we don't have a governor with testicles, who would arrest all, including Federal agents, caught smuggling illegal aliens through our state. Apparently Governor Weaklee doesn't believe the 10th Amendment is still extant.
      --Tennessee Budd

      Sorry, the fecklessness of our governor gets to me.

      Delete
    3. It is true but it's off topic. I tire of such things.

      Delete
    4. Quite fair enough. You're a very friendly host, but we are visiting your place, after all. I've always believed in 'your house, your rules: my house, my rules'. I try to be a polite guest.
      I've read the March 11 post (might as well put this here, rather than do another comment on that post). Take all the rest you require. We'll wait; we know your writing is quite worth waiting for.
      --TB

      Delete
  4. Thanks for update Pawel. I find it fascinating that in some small way, this is turning out to be a field test of some of the Cold War equipment I remember from my youth.

    Is there a sense that the war risks breaking over into further neighbors or that it will be "confined" to Ukraine, as awful an option as that is?

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  5. That was not current combat footage. Notice the camera is right on the 50 yard line and elevated perfectly. Notice also the chopper is two tone with a diagonal line separating the colors, not camo, probably a test, demo or training. There is a ton of documentation of 2014 "color revolution" combat footage being touted as current combat. Everyone should question everything coming from the MSM. Anyone who thinks U crane is the poor victim hasn't been paying attention to recent history. Anybody notice that that the lights are still on in the cities? Anybody think maybe the Russians aren't doing the Blitzkrieg because they're avoiding civilians and infrastructure? Anybody think that having all the NWO evil Phuquer's on your side is a tell? Anybody noticing that Soros WEF has infiltrated ALL of Western .Gov, news, corporations and NGO's? Anybody notice that Ukraine is Money Laundering Central? I noticed and I'm a relative dumb ass.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TNX 4 a very sharp, unbiased eye. still haven't figgered out who to support in this one, if any. I'd like to say: just so long as we don't waste our servicemen, but it seems that the sniffer has already placed us right in the vanguard by declaring economic war on Russia.
      can't apologize enough for the spelling errors, the fingers don't work as well as they once did

      Delete
  6. Oh yeah, I love your site and visit daily. Mis, dis and mal info is the norm these days. You know they're lying if they're lips are moving. Remember your Rumors and Propaganda class from your training days, be skeptical and question everything. Mike, 43151c, Chair Force, crew chief 69-73.

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  7. Thank you, Pawel. Sparkles of light in the fog.

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  8. Couple of observations about that video. I've spent a good portion of my aviation career at low level. I even got a ride in OH-1 (Right hand speed left hand up/down confused the heck out of me). My first observation was that the camera in the video was IMHO about 500' above the ground. That was the lower limit we were "supposed" to fly at. So, I'm used to that look and feel. The helicopter was about halfway to the horizon, which doing the geometry means he was about 250' AGL. Which is very high for a helicopter especially in a combat situation. I think the Stinger would have been able to function under those parameters but that's irrelevant, whichever missile was fired functioned as needed. The thing that strikes me is why was he that high? Poor training? Over confidence? Who knows? My helo pilot told me the only time during a mission he got above the tree line was if there was no way around it or under it. That pilot made a decision and it cost him his life. I wonder why?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Measure the length of the helo, count lengths from the helo's flight level to the center of the fireball reflection, multiply by 57' = ~150' AGL? There's probably some error in there, but I feel like 250 could be a significant over-estimate. (I mark him as ~2.5 lengths off the ground, 250' is 4.4). Whatever it as, it was certainly within the engagement envelope....

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    2. Within the engagement envelope? Now, that's a certainty! ;-)

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    3. And, as in my defense, visually I generally OVER estimated my height above ground while flying low levels. But, who has time to look in the Cockpit, it's much more exciting to be looking outside. It's also more effective at preventing USAA paying off your life insurance.

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    4. I mean, you'd rather be too high than tie the low-altitude record? (also the FOV of the drone might not match that of the Mark I Eyeball, and other confounding factors. I have to imagine it's like riding in a race car, terrifying until you get a lot of practice...)

      Delete
  9. Great post Paweł.

    For those questioning the veracity of the video, read this analysis. It's interesting. The video is purported to show an Mi-24 being downed, though it could also be an Mi-35. There are a couple of things about the video which make me think it's legit.

    But go read the analysis, what they say might change your mind.

    I will say, there is a lot of BS coverage coming out of the war zone (what else is new?) but don't doubt everything you see. (The converse is of course don't believe everything you see.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Speaking of BS, Pawel's reference to the Romanovs.
      What we see today has nothing in common with that time.

      That segues into the sometimes mistaken belief that the closer one is to wvents, the truer their account.

      I have no enmity towards Pawel, I appreciate his many comments here. Yet keep in mind, we're all - yes, in Poland too - being lied to vis a vis Ukraine Vs Russia.

      Delete
    2. You are close to the edge.

      "We're all being lied to ..." By whom, to what purpose?

      Delete
    3. I do not wish to belabor the subject yet it is important that I provide clarity; I do not include Pawel in my statement that we are being lied to. It is various media sources feeding propaganda and outright deception. This is beyond the usual under or over count in casualty and action reports.

      Further, I am livid that NATO may soon be directly mired due to boneheaded politicians. And for what? So they may collect their filthy lucre.

      Nonetheless, I must better contain myself in my comments.

      Delete
    4. Being able to distinguish fact from propaganda is damned difficult, I'll give you that.

      Delete
  10. Unfortunately, Pawel, our feckless leaders in the pursuit of the new feudalism they so seek have thrown away any chance of increase in domestic production. In fact, just this week they've shut down more pipelines, ordered the destruction of more of the XL Pipeline equipment, refused access to existing leases, ordered a shutdown of a Florida-based nuclear reactor and on and on and on.

    We went from energy independent and exporting to energy dependent and importing within 1 year. And it's gotten worse and worse.

    We have a transportation secretary who is openly calling for the end of fossil-fueled cars and electric vehicles for everyone at the same time the energy secretary is shutting down more and more fossile and nuclear power plants.

    We have a very rich concentration-camp survivor and Japanese-American who is famous for playing a bit part in an okay science fiction series that is openly calling for... concentration camps for people he doesn't like and calling for increased gas prices and sanctions against Russia as a way of sticking it to Russia (and obviously failed history because sanctions were one of the main causes of the Pacific War.

    Right now the best bet is for nobody, including Americans, to trust anything our government does.

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  11. TNX 4 the Conect-A-Dot. There R a lot out there who still haven't got the big pic yet

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  12. Yeah Spin, I deleted your comment. See the rules below, you crossed the line.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ok, Sorry about that but I still think I'm going to be right on this. Today's traveling bar bouncer videos and tomorrow's UN security council revelations will pull the curtain back on what is going on in the Ukraine and who is really pulling the puppet strings. Didn't mean to offend.

      Delete
    2. Time will tell.

      No harm, no foul.

      Delete
    3. Ooh, ow, oh! Never seen you do that before, and I've been lurking around here for some time! Musta been sumpin pretty durned naughty!

      Delete
  13. For those who openly support Russia here:
    UN General assembly voted on the war,demanding Russia to retreat -
    Only Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Eritrea joined Russia in opposing the measure,
    You are in truly elite company.

    ReplyDelete
  14. It would be wild, absolutely mind blowing, if puddingcup were to announce; Effective immediately by AEO* I have allowed domestic oil and gas production to increase unfettered of previous policy for the intent of exporting to the aid of Europeans.

    *EO have become so abused that they are assho.

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    Replies
    1. Mind blowing and highly improbable. Sock puppet and his handlers want us disarmed and reliant on public transport.

      Delete
  15. “Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars.” - John J. Pershing

    In several critical reports of Russian military operations in the Ukraine, mention has been made of deficiencies in training, military supply chain and government corruption in general.
    Comments brought to mind Catherine the Great and Grigory Potemkin. Aside from being a ranking officer and lover of Catherine, Potemkin became known for “Potemkin Villages”. Funds having been squandered, Potemkin Villages were facades erected in the Ukraine to simulate villages for local residents.
    Arguably, corruption may be a systemic problem in Russian culture.

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    Replies
    1. Re: "corruption may be a systemic problem in Russian culture"

      Ya think? But it's not limited to Russian culture alone, not by a long shot. (That's right DC, I'm looking at you.)

      Delete

Just be polite... that's all I ask. (For Buck)
Can't be nice, go somewhere else...

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