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| Ukrainian civilians posing in front of what remains of the 4th Guards Tank Division in Trostyanets, Sumy (Source) |
Ahem.
Stalemate. This is best encapsulated by newest political joke in Moscow -
"Welcome to <insert number here- as I write it is 33rd> day of the three-day special military action to capture Kiev."
So what
events changed since last week?
First:
http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/03/scratch-one-russian-navy-alligator-lst.html
Leave it to
Salamander to discuss technical know-how of LST being hit and sunk in
port.
Apparently
Russians telegraphed in own TV the news reel of ships offloading at the pier, allowing UKR OSINT to pinpoint place to strike. In the days of Google street
view posting any video online - or in TV - pretty much broadcasts to the
enemies "target me!"
An
important thing seems to be leaked from the talks between warring sides:
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-neutral-status-russia-peace-agreement-volodymyr-zelenskyy/
So, the
NATO membership is off the table finally, but I think for Russia that was not
the real problem. They wanted Ukraine a colony, a protectorate, not independent
nation. So NATO membership was just a solidifying of the first problem, the
independent and democratic Ukraine.
https://www.politico.eu/article/survivor-story-darkest-hell-ukraine-mariupol/
Meanwhile,
Russians unleashed their worst indiscriminate fires on Mariupol, place they
seem most close to capturing out of major cities, and crucial component of land
bridge to Crimea.
Satellite
images show grim picture indeed:
This has
even prompted some European leaders to throw an idea of evacuation effort:
https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-france-spearhead-exceptional-operation-evacuate-mariupol/
I am not
sure if it will come to anything though with Russians owning the waters around
the port. This would also likely risk escalation into open exchange of blows
with NATO ships...
Meanwhile war has impacted oil market - not that kind
of oil...
Here is
when I report from first hand witness perspective, working at supermarket in
Poland near German border I had number of German clients buying large numbers
of oil bottles in typical panic buyer mode...
Add this
oil global market shortage to the grain shortage and it is even worse hunger
crisis in the making. With animal fats no sell on many markets due to religious
reasons (remember the Sepoy mutiny, anyone?) this takes another important
source of nutrients into scarcity.
And war
makes for strange bedfellows - well not that strange considering Germany has
been helping Israel by building them submarines, for example , for years - and
those subs are crucial component of Israeli deterrence, likely housing nuclear
cruise missiles...
Last but
not least, the elephant - or rather donkey - in the room:
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/26/biden-putin-poland-speech-00020671
Biden lands
for a short visit, and delivers what was sad, sad attempt to imitate Kennedy or
Reagan of the past.
Lots of
platitudes, occasional faux pas - and not much of substance. I expected
announcement of heavy brigade, or better division permanently stationed in
Poland, best coupled with a fighter wing... Alas, nope. All of you who don't
like Biden, feel free to make a piñata of him, but as with military, you go to
war with president you have.
At least he
didn't get into direct shooting war with Russia, so that's a bonus.
Because,
someone had a very good observation here:
Russian
walkover would be invitation for more conquest. Direct war would be risking
nuclear escalation with only nation of Earth capable of wiping out the
USA. What is left is a messy solution
that costs most the people of Ukraine, but is after eliminating worst options
only course left...
See ya
(hopefully) next week.
I am
betting case of our best local beer that it will be 7 more days added to that
joke I mentioned earlier.
Any takers?
"We never learn" - Russian army , Berlin 45, Budapest 56, Grozny 95, Ukraine 22
Ah, good article. To be fair to Biden, he does not want a two front war. And I fear that the Chinese are watching about, what works. Just as reports of the same training and watching are reported in India, Malaysia and Australia.
ReplyDelete"Ewok from the jungle planet"... Thank you Pawel. I now have a number of competing mental images about you, although of them which make me smile.
ReplyDeleteWhat remains (fortunately) shocking to me is what seems to be significant mis-steps in logistics, which (as far as I am aware) no-one had pegged for the Russians. Either everyone's intelligence gathering operations were really that off base or it was a buried problem that not even the Russians knew they had (until they did). What I am hoping for and yet fearful of is that lots of people are watching - and learning - from their mistakes (looking at you, China).
The worldwide impact on food and fuel is real and every day this goes on, it gets more profound. At some point - at least for the food - we will pass the point of no return in that after a certain, there simply will be no more planting and then, like the supply chain issue, we will simply be behind the curve for the foreseeable future. Curious as you reference German customers - are these customers crossing the border from Germany to shop? That would be pretty significant indeed.
As always, thank you for the update and stay safe.
Germans come shopping here all the time, capitalizing on price differences between countries. What was remarkable this time was focus on frying oil and large quantities.
DeleteVery good post Pawel, some interesting links there although my PC doesn't like Politico. With that T-72 vid less shouting and more aiming, like rear deck perhaps. But it's easy to be critical when sitting in a warm, intact house.
ReplyDeletere: NLAWS
ReplyDeleteAppears fired inside minimum arm distance. No arm, no boom. Should have aimed at top of deck above motor...if you shoot from that close.
RAS
Most probable explanation, definitely. too close to arm, no boom.
DeleteYes, but....I suspect laundry service was required for the Russian crew's underwear. Just saying.
Delete👍
DeleteRegarding Israel and Germany, Germany is expanding Israel's surface fleet with some frigates with decent guns on them.
ReplyDeleteAs to the rest, sounds like the material loss of the Russian army is incredible. Wonder when they will reach unreplacable levels?
Well done, Paweł. I look forward to the next installment. Hopefully it will tell the tale of the end of this war.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the pulling back is only for retrograde, to sleep and resupply.
ReplyDelete