Ukraine - The View from Poland, November Update

(Source)

Editor's Note: This post was submitted by our Polish correspondent Paweł Kasperek. His thoughts and opinions on the matter do not necessarily match my own. Map is included above to help get your bearings while reading.

Ewok Report, part whatever ...

1. Fall of Kherson.

As we presumably all know, Russia seems to have made first rational strategic decision of the war, and retreated troops from Kherson area on the West side of Dnepr river, while they still could.

It is assumed that was due to new, lately appointed CINC for the entire war. General Surovikin. He gained reputation for ruthlessness, but also for efficiency in the Russian expeditionary war in Syria.

He apparently convinced Putin that bleeding the men and material in an untenable position is not worth political goal of annexation. The men and arms instead would be better used shoring up the defenses, until, hopefully, mobilization effort shows results.

2. Bakhmut brawl.

Meanwhile, only area where Russians still were attacking was the area near of city of Bakhmut, south of areas liberated by Ukrainians earlier near Kharkiv. Note that main effort here was not by main army, but Wagner group mercenaries, drawing heavily on prisoners released in exchange for volunteering. There has been a speculation that this offensive, bloody and at a crawling pace of maybe kilometer per week, is vanity project of the Wagner founder and long time Kremlin insider Prighozin, former prisoner himself in 1980s, who managed to become first restaurateur, then catering provider for the Kremlin, earning nickname of "Putin's Cook". The speculation seems to be valid, because originally it was designed as a part of two-pincer move to encircle Ukrainian forces between Bakhmut and northern occupied areas near Izyum, but the latter are long gone due to Ukrainian counteroffensives, leaving one pincer with nothing to connect with ...

3. V-1 offensive, redux.

On another front, one that is far behind conventional lines, Russia seems to be betting on massive waves of drones and cruise missiles aimed at energetic and heating infrastructure, in Kyiv but as well in other major Ukraine cities. Last and most massive wave of attacks happened on the 15th of November. The aim is, like with V-1 strikes of WW2 to break civilian morale, with missiles because Russia failed to secure skies enough for conventional bombing. Increased precision of the weapons means increased physical results, but as history shows bombing the enemy into surrender rarely works - about the only exception was nuclear bombing of Japan, and not because of direct effect itself, because previous bombings were as devastating if not more, but because it gave Emperor the excuse he needed to intervene into political tug of war between war and capitulate factions in the government.

Ukrainians will heat themselves with wood-fueled stoves made from barrels and pipes if needed, but they wont give up.

4. Polish border incident.

This ties up nicely into next event, as stray missile landed 6 km into Poland, killing 2 people at relatively empty countryside. Lots of wild speculations were cast initially, but joint investigation by US and Polish services indicates it was Ukrainian SA-10 (S-300) SAM which apparently failed to self-destruct after missing intercepted Russian missile.

Thankfully government played it cool and I think this is good news. Bad news is, next time it could be Russian missile, with half ton warhead, in some more urban area. If there were 50 victims, I can't even imagine extent of possible pressure on government to exact some sort of revenge then.

5. What next?

It seems that both sides are not even nearing the point that they could consider even meeting , let alone making peace.

For the Ukrainian side, CDR Salamander has excellent piece on possible offensive COA:

http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/11/welcome-to-my-post-fall-of-kherson-jopg.html

Despite being primarily navalist, I hold him in high esteem, and he has been in enough joint staff operations to know what he is talking about.

For the Russian side, it is much harder to predict. The very decision to invade was a massive gamble, the way in which it was executed, even more gamble and both those gambles were evidently made on wrong assumptions about everything from own forces, to Ukrainian resistance, to West support for Ukraine.

But, from what I see, except for Bakhmut, the idea for now is to hold defence, train up massive million or 2 millions strong army and attack again in spring or summer.

The problem is, with losses of tanks and artillery pieces going in thousands, and overall bad state of recruits. The most intelligent ones, and the most enterprising made their way to places like Georgia, Khazakhstan, and even Mongolia in numbers exceeding those mobilised by wide margin, leaving military with sad bunch of 40- to -50 year olds with bad condition and often alcohol problems. (This also cripples the economy, but at this moment only part of economy Putin gives rats ass about is weapons and ammo production).

Speaking of weapons producers, it seems years of hollowed out budgets resulted in factories ready to deliver half-tested Su-57 and Armata tanks - in single digit numbers, or at best dozens a year. Russia had to resort to plundering Belarus semi-ally for weapons and ammo, and reportedly buying ammo in North Korea. What is proven, that in regards for drones, Russia has to rely on Iran. So the mighty have fallen... Stalin is rolling in his grave, probably.

As for the territorial ways of Russian advance, there is three possible places.

1.Suicide drive thru lower Dnieper, to retake Kherson and go further to Nikolaev and Odessa.

Least likely. Forcing major river is hard, it took Soviet almost million casualties in 1943. And if they planned to attack there again they would not give up Kherson.

2.Second drive on Kyiv.

Not likely either. Some have speculated about Putin strong-arming Lukashenko, into sending his meagre army to shore up Russian numbers. Reality is that Byelorussians have even less incentives to fight than Russians, and best case they would melt away, worst case, turn guns on Russians... and the last thing Putin is need another country to pacify, and bad example for own troops. Note that in 2020 when Lukashenko had to pacify massive protests after he falsified elections, he didn't trust his army and used loyalty-picked security detachments.

3.Take control of Donbas, entrench and ask for peace.

My most likely Red COA¹. Bakhmut drive might be way to complete territorial takeover of Donetsk province, allowing for a settlement along the lines of control. Of course there is a big question of what Ukrainian side manages to recapture in the meantime ... And if they will be willing to agree to such peace.

If they complete the actions envisioned in Salamanders article, the fall of Crimea can not be excluded. I decline to envisage possible results for the political stability in Russia ... or its military reactions then.

Ewok out!

links to interesting things:

Kherson campaign analysis in detail

https://youtu.be/fxR1jmZTLew

Bakhmut offensive analysis 

https://youtu.be/xRjnbACvsXs

 

 

¹ COA = Course of Action