Ewok Report, Emergency (Kinda) Edition

Martial Law Protest in South Korea
Source

While we were being used to the standard "All quiet on the Western Front" reports, seemingly out of nowhere 2 places flared up into conflict.

Firstly, in South Korea.

It seems a president down on political luck decided to summon army to bail him out, under pretense of external danger. (Not that danger is totally inexistent, to be sure... North Korea has been making warlike noises even by their own standards lately).

He was forced to back down by the legislature, including own party members, and massive citizen protests.

What worries me is that in almost exact scenario we had Red Phoenix start in the original Larry Bond novel - civil unrest in the ROK leads to US starting troops withdrawal, and NK takes chance to invade.

What reassures me is this episode seems to be already over and will not impact ROK army readiness in the long term.

Secondly, there is sudden offensive of rebels in Syria, capturing Aleppo and Hama. I will not try to reinvent the wheel and reference excellent article by the great Cdr Salamander, here.

I actually have been wondering when the Russia retreating to fight Ukraine - and Iranian proxies in the area being pounded to ground by Israel - would result in situation change in Syria, and here it is.

For those who don't have the time to read, I will just leave this excellent picture. Veritable Game of Thrones, with ISIS playing Nightwalkers wanting to kill EVERYONE. As the situation enters dynamic change, I expect interesting times ahead. As in "May you live in interesting times!" ancient Chinese curse.

Source

I can already predict that increased fighting might trigger another stream of refugees in Europe, but this time finding much less hospitable ground than in 2015.

Far right parties have gained ground, and even mainstream right and some left have grown to accept voters distrust - or even disgust - of immigration.

Stay tuned...

The Glory and Fall of the Commonwealth - part 1

Kraków Militia, a local guard formation in the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth during the 16th and 17th centuries
Fragment of the Rulonu polskiego
Balthasar Gebhardt, ca. 1605, gouache on parchment (PD)

In the 1500s and 1600s, if you look upon the map of Eastern Europe you notice a giant state, stretching from Baltic to almost Black Sea, and from Poznan (Posen) to Smolensk on the road to Moscow.

But by 1800s if you look upon same map, you will see that state not merely shrinking or changing borders, but disappearing entirely, as if swallowed by surrounding powers.

How did it come to pass?

Roots of the Polish-Lithuanian state emerged in late 1300s, when both countries threatened by aggressive policies of the Teutonic Order state in Prussia formed alliance, cemented by marriage of Lithuanian Grand Duke Jogaila (in Polish, known as Jagiełło) to Polish King (sic!) Jadwiga (tl;dr - Polish nobility accepted female King due to dynastic reasons).

Added bonus for the sides was Christianization of Lithuania. Lithuania gained entry into then exclusive family of european Christian nations, and deprived Teutons of their claimed reason for war, namely conversion by fire and sword. Poland gained respect as the ones who did succeed with diplomacy where Teutons failed with sword.

Results were soon visible, with the alliance dealing the Teutonic Order crippling defeat in the Battle of Grunwald aka Tannenberg in 1410. I will deal with this battle as first of the dramas little heard of, or learned today in the West.

Teutonic order fielded what by 1400s standards was top tech modern military - featuring mercenary English longbowmen, elite knight cavalry, and even some primitive canons.

Aided by extremely efficient administration by medieval standards (all posts were nominated by the Order itself, not hereditary) Order was wealthy enough to afford it, and dealt crushing blow after another to all enemies - subjugating Prussian pagans within less than century 1226-1283, taking Gdansk aka Danzig from Poland in 1308 in an act of betrayal straight out of Game of Thrones - Poles hired Teutonic knights to help fend off Brandenburgian raid, only for the Teutons to turn on their allies, slaughter Polish crew and many civilians, and take the city for themselves, and expanding into Lithuania.

Eventually, things came to decisive blows in 1409 , when Teutonic Order declared war on the alliance, hoping to crush them before they grow too powerful.

After some time of maneuvering and armistices, the armies came to blows in the heart of the Prussian domain, on fields between the villages of Grunwald and Tannenberg, hence the names for the battle.

Polish army featured mostly similarly equipped knights to the Order, with some peasant levies thrown in for good measure. Lithuanian side was mostly light cavalry, Mongol style, and even featuring some actual Mongol mercenaries.

There were even some Czech mercenaries on Polish side, led by none other than future Hussite leader Jan Žižka.

The battle was chronicled pretty accurately by contemporary historians. It seems that initially Teutons gained advantage by routing Lithuanians - or possibly failing prey to the feigned retreat. Eventually, though , Lithuanian forces that fled - or feigned flight - returned to the fray and helped encircle the Teutonic army, ending with massive defeat. Out of 200 "white cloaks", the full brothers of the order, only 70 escaped. Only the almost unconquerable castle of Malbork aka Marienburg saved the Order from total defeat.

Here are some sources:

• Battle of Grunwald (Wikipedia)
• Battle of Grunwald (Britannica)
• Battle of Grunwald (The Collector)
• Battle of Grunwald (YouTube) (Video taken from 1960 cinema epic "Knights of the Cross" based on historic novel, so take with more than a pinch of salt - but still more precise medieval warfare depiction than any todays CGI wonders ...)

Next episode: The Jagiellon dynasty, 13 years war , and establishment of electionary monarchy.

Editor's Note: I only did minimal editing of the post. Paweł's English is quite good and I wanted this to be in his words and not do some hacked up editing of my own. I'm betting most of you don't speak Polish, so don't be too critical of Paweł's English.