Ewok Report: January - Addendum

The guided-missile destroyer USS Gravely (DDG 107) launches Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles in response to increased Iranian-backed Houthi malign behavior in the Red Sea Jan. 12, 2024. As a part of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, Gravely is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the Middle East.
(U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jonathan Word Source)

Just as I have sent my first report, a few new analyses showed up on my radar which can help with the understanding of global situation.

A focus on Red Sea actions, from a very good channel by US veterans, especially note the economics of war: using a million dollar missile is a bad investment when killing 10,000 dollar drone, unless you consider it saves 100 millions or more of wares aboard container ship (not to mention lives of those onboard).

North Korea rumblings in focus, with some other developments also covered.

And as a final addendum, news emerging of huge corruption in the PLA, even prestigious rocket forces.

My take is, Xi noticed how Russian corruption hurt their Ukrainian war, and went hunting corruption in his own armed forces. Good news, the corruption seems so big that any war against Taiwan might be postponed. Bad news, when the hunt is over, PLA will emerge more effective, and more loyal to Xi. This might take some time, though to produce the results Xi wants.

This is Ewok, out for now.

Ewok Report - The View from Poland, Welcome to 2024

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Hello there, and greetings from snowy European forests!

Paweł aka Ewok here, and with some updates of the frontlines of Eurasia.

Sorry for delaying the post, but I had some grave family issues (My mother died in early December), and a PC upgrade with new hard drive which took some time.

While the general stalemate on the Ukrainian front continues, we have some surprising-only-Russians Ukrainian attacks showing ingenuity of Ukrainian armed forces: Ukraine downs Russian Aircraft.

Beriev A-50 AWACS
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Il-22PP Special Mission Aircraft
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Losing AWACS and support command plane in one go, ouch. Especially with how few of those Russia has left.

Meanwhile Germans, being, well, Germans.¹ Anyone surprised?

Taurus KEPD 350 Cruise Missile
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And while there has been less news about Gaza since Israelis went for a steady smoking out of the Hamas nest with not much flashy headlines, another region flared up, namely Red Sea out of the coast of the Yemen.

HMS Diamond
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Not only Houthis have conducted so many attacks on merchant shipping in one of the busiest chokepoints of world sea traffic (around 12 percent of total global trade!) but they have engaged US and UK warships in a veritable sea battle.

US forces also conducted airstrikes on Houthi targets, but consider me skeptical of finding the right mud hut amongst hundreds of thousands.

Overall, I predict most of the shipping companies will abandon the Red Sea route and go around Cape of Good Hope instead. Costs etc., but safety first. Egypt will be badly hurt with Suez Canal income dropping. Europe will suffer some inflation. But nothing that really matters much.

And as a final candle on the New Years fireworks display, Iran got suicide bombed (what a laser guided karma!) and started an exchange of fire with Pakistan. This one can be, so to say, developing ...

So the start of 2024 is really eventful. As a final word I wish you all a boring and uneventful year ...

Paweł

¹ Editor's Note Unsurprisingly, the Poles don't much care for Germans. In case you didn't know.

Ewok Report, All-Saints Day 2023

Destruction in Odesa region after Russian drone attack in the night on October 6, 2023. Port infrastructure in Izmail district was damaged, including Orlivka checkpoint on the border with Romania, granary and 9 trucks
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It's been a while dear Sarge and friends (TM), but I had some family circumstances to take care of, and moreover changed my locum from small house on the outskirts of the city to flat nearer to my workplace. So please excuse my lack of reporting for  many weeks.

It didn't help that Ukraine's frontlines nearly froze in "All quiet on the Western Front" manner. sure Ukrainians were pushing down hard in some places, and Russians wasted another few dozens of tanks and thousands of lives in others, but overall it seemed firepower trumped maneuver in such a way that old bastard Petain described in two words:

FIREPOWER KILLS

As such, there was nothing noteworthy to report - until news showed new item on the battlefield making its mark : US ATACMS.

In just 2 strikes involving no more than handful of old-model (circa 1995) missiles carrying "steel rain" submunitions (waste not, want not - if you gonna scrap the ammo nearing end of it shelf life you might as well use it to destroy your enemies) Ukrainian AF dealt massive blow to Russian Ka-52 attack helo force based at Berdyansk and Lugansk Russian AFB (Berdyansk those who follow me also being the place where once Russian LST was sunk by Tochka SRBM strike).  No less than 9 Ka-52s  were destroyed totally or wrecked beyond repair, along with some Mi-8 transports. 

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Relevant geolocations by Oryx, continuing their mammoth task of chronicling weapons losses of the war.

For a loooong time ATACMS were no-go item for Ukraine wishlist. There have been fear of nuclear retaliation, etc. 

Nothing materialized.

Russia, basically is stuck on escalation ladder where all steps above are disaster, and most of steps below are lost war. 

So, there it is for the Ukrainian War, nearing steadily its third year.

One definite lesson is, prepare lots and lots of ammo for any war with peer competitors. Enough to kill millions of enemies, in fact, because Russia seems undaunted by casualties nearing by estimates 300k.

Now, this would have been extent of my report, if not for "some damn fool thing in the middle East".

It seems history, while never repeating itself verbatim, is awesome in the art of rhyming.

On nearly exact anniversary of the Yom Kippur War of 1973 - older readers know the name very well... - Arabs managed to surprise Israel again, after it did again put its faith more in static defences (Bar Leva line vs Gaza strip wall) with not enough boots on the ground and firepower on call to defend them. 

Only this time it was not regular military versus regular military clashing in the mostly desolate Sinai.

It was horrific spectacle that Salamander best described as Hamas LARP-ing Einsatzgruppen of the time of "Holokaust by bullets" in 1941, before the Germans perfected their industry of killing.

I wont bother to show you graphic footage. It is beyond point. Just enough to say we all know that only course of action left for Istael is total eradication of Hamas. Regardless of how many civilians in Gaza die in the process.  

I am again leaning on dear friend Salamander , because he has great written article on how the Israelis will proceed from here.

Personally, writing this from Szczecin (ex-Stettin) I will posit that Danzig 45 COA¹ worked wonders in the long term, with Germans and Poles having friendly border (despite my just voted-out nationalistic government loud anti-German propaganda).

Note to everyone, there is nothing any country in the world can do to stop Israel from their COA once taken. No one is going to trade their capital city for Gaza, despite loud cries of support from the usual quarters (Tehran, Ankara, cough, cough). And for Israel eradication of Hamas has become matter of survival. And israel has nukes.

That doesn't mean there is no potential of escalation. Hezbollah in Lebanon has formidable arsenal of missiles, and Houthis already  sent some SCUDs and drones Israeli way, most of them being intercepted by US Navy Aegis ships in Red Sea (Good job!), and at least one landing in Egypt. So much for accuracy...

So, basically US has one land war to look after in Europe, one in the Middle East, and Chinese are watching intently for an occasion to jump the Taiwan strait.

This looks awfully like 1930s with wars flaring up in Ethiopia, Spain, China, Poland until eventually all merged in one global conflagration.²

Pardon my pessimism, but on All Saints Day I feel obliged to quote Plato:

Only the dead have seen the end of the war.

     -- Ewok Out!

 

¹ Course of Action

² He ain't wrong!

Ukraine - The View from Poland, April Update

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Ewok Report, 2nd of April 2023

Since the Russo-Ukrainian war is already over year long, I will just set a timestamp of sorts instead of parts or other points discerning episodes. This time I will be short, because of personal/family life intruding. Instead, I will relate some very interesting analyses from Perun, who has risen to be my fave analyst:

1. The economic war:

Indicates state of the economic battle, which is where West is most openly involved, both as actor and as target.

TL;DR Version:

West has survived energy imports from Russia loss much better than expected, especially much better than Putin expected. In fact it is barely even on war footing. Russia survived that decoupling and sanctions also better than West expected. Ukraine survived everything Russia threw their way and didnt collapse into blackouts and cold. 

All in all, everyone can at the very least follow up for another year or more. 

2. Russian winter offensive:

TL;DR Version:

Costly, to both sides, but definitely more so to Russian one. And bringing some small gains in scenes reminding of WW1 trench nightmare. If/when Ukrainian spring counterattack comes, it can be very costly as well.

3. Attrition and Casualties:

TL;DR Version:

Trying to estimate attrition of equipment and casualties of troops Ukrainian claims are much more in line with visually confirmed wrecks, and considering dark numbers of not photographed wrecks they might be close to reality Meanwhile Russian claims sometimes are more than entire Ukrainian inventory of the item. Human casualties might be much harder to track.

4. The Air War:

TL;DR Version:

One of biggest surprises of the war was its air component. After initial chaos and Russian failed bid for air superiority, multitude of air defence systems have in fact enforced a Mutual Air Denial - a no-mans sky over the frontline where only few planes dare to operate in low altitudes, and at high casualty costs. 

What is very important, not even delivery of Western jets is likely to change the balance much.

My addition: very significant considerations resulting from this for Taiwan. Giving Taiwan porcupine-like array of air defenses might be better investment than costly fighters - even though they might have own uses in keeping enemy at bay.

Fighting Chinese over their own turf will be probably only feasible for stealth aircraft.

Chinese attempts at airmobile landings - be it heliborne or paratroopers - are likely to end in slaughter for them. 

Final words:

I expect Ukrainian offensive in the window from late April to early summer. There's tension between giving troops time to train, often with new western equipment, and giving Russians time to entrench.

As for where the hammer will fall, I am completely not ready to predict. In fact there is much likelihood that any speculations will be wrong, and part of effort to divert best Russian troops, as it was previously when Ukraine made a big show of wanting to retake Kherson, only to strike near Kharkiv. 

That's all, folks.

Paweł aka Ewok

Ukraine - The View from Poland, February Update

A soldier walks along Ukrainian armored vehicles blocking a street in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022. Russian troops stormed toward Ukraine's capital Saturday, and street fighting broke out as city officials urged residents to take shelter. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky) (Source)

Not hearing much about Ukraine in the news in the U.S. (that I've noticed, of course I don't watch hardly any television, and stay away from the "major" news outlets online) but the fighting continues and the first anniversary of the invasion approaches. Lots of balloons and UFOs in the news though. Here's a new report from our Polish correspondent. (He touches upon the balloons and UFOs as well, not necessarily having anything at all to do with Ukraine, but interesting.)

Ewok report, eve of anniversary episode.

This is your humble correspondent, observing events in Ukraine and elsewhere concerning the biggest war in Europe since 1945.

1. The Leopard drama concludes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64391272

Germans finally gave up under pressure from both US and the likes of Poland and Baltics. Leopard 2s are heading into Ukraine soon, along with token Challenger 2 (14) and Abrams (31) contingents. Supporting them will be at least 88 Leopard 1s (possibly more if either Turkey or Greece will be convinced to part with them).

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-send-leopard-tanks-ukraine-russia-war-rheinmetall/

The older 1a5 Leopards lack the heavy armor protection but have been modernised to have pretty much same advanced sensors, sights and stabilisation which means that they enjoy both target acquisition and accuracy advantage over most Russian tanks,

The tanks will need to be trained with the new Ukrainian crews, indeed as I write

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3209128/poland-already-training-ukrainian-soldiers-leopard-battle-tanks-says-defence-minister

Poland is already training Ukrainian tankmen.

2. Zelensky tours Western Europe:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-64566248

https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-arrives-in-brussels-for-eu-summit-ukraine-russia-war/

Zelensky, having secured tanks pleads for modern fighters. Apart from look-down shoot-down capability to hunt cruise missiles, those would be possibly able to run gauntlet of Russian air defenses and finish off the damaged Crimea bridge. This together with longer range missiles like ground launched small diameter bomb (also in the newest US delivery list) breaking the railway links on the Azov Sea coast might see Russians supply lines to Crimea critically compromised (Russia is HEAVILY relying on railways for logistics, trucks are in short supply, and needed for the "last miles" from railheads anyway.

3. Russian Army gets ready for "Anniversary Offensive"

Eastern front in the Donbas seems to be the place, with elements of 3rd and 144th Motor Rifle Divisions, 90th Tank Division, and 76th Airborne Division spotted in the area.

It seems that after letting the Wagner Group bleed itself dry out of convicts recruited for the war, and weaken somewhat Ukrainians in the process, regular Army is wanting to do finally some combined arms offensive, with time moment chosen to either commemorate anniversary of war, or simply to get things done before March snows melting turn the steppe into sea of mud. And before western MBT arrive , too.

How will they fare, might be indicative of entire war course to come. If Russia one year into the war fails badly at combined arms offensive, this will mean pretty much they are incapable of learning and doomed to fail. If they succeed in major way, clearing rest of the Donbas of Ukrainian troops, Russia can declare victory and ask for peace. If they do some minor gains, but not enough to declare victory, expect more of carnage in the year to come, or maybe into more years to come.

4. Balloon d'essai.

This one will possibly impact Ukraine indirectly, as US will have to keep eye open on China and get ready for possible Taiwan war.

My US audience is better than me familiar with the whole saga of Winnie the pooh and USAF bees.

https://www.politico.eu/cdn-cgi/image/width=1024,quality=80,onerror=redirect,format=auto/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/10/271638.jpg

what made me go hhmm, is the follow up:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/11/politics/unidentified-object-alaska-military-latest/index.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/11/us-jet-canada-unidentified-object-trudeau-00082440

2 separate shootdowns over Alaska and Canada within 48 hours.

This seems to be much more massive operation by the Chinese, not one-off accident.

USAF was definitely told to this time take gloves off and go anti-Kaijiu mode - kill anything that comes from the Pacific and is not confirmed normal civilian flight.

That's all and I will keep eyes open for the developments in next weeks.

Paweł aka Ewok

Ukraine - Some Thoughts

(Source Read Me!)

This is not a post from our Polish correspondent Paweł, I've just been doing some thinking lately about Eastern Europe. Quite frankly, to paraphrase the immortal Vince Lombardi -

Yes, what the Hell is going on "out there"?

In February of last year (2022), elements of the Russian Army crossed the border into Ukraine, fully expecting to finish the war in just a couple of weeks.

That was eleven months ago, the fighting continues, the Russian Army has been somewhat embarrassed in the field by the Ukrainian Army, the fighting rages on, and people are still dying.

Russia has called up another 300,000 men to replenish the ranks of the Army that went into Ukraine and the West is emptying the cupboard to supply the Ukrainian Army.

It's a mess, a giant geopolitical mess.

I was wondering just the other day, where is the United Nations in all this? Isn't that something they were created to prevent, deter, and/or reverse? (Rhetorical question, of course.)

Well unbeknownst to me, the UN did chime in on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict fairly recently. Back in October the UN voted to condemn the Russian annexation of the Sudetenland, er, I mean, certain regions in the Crimean. Full details here.

I noticed that the usual suspects abstained and the usual suspects voted "No" on the condemnation of Russia's (really, here you should read "Putin's") actions. But in typical UN fashion, nothing really came of this condemnation.

As for weapons and munitions being shipped to Ukraine by the West, whose paying for all that stuff? Ukraine can't afford it, maybe it's a example of FDRs' analogy  -

"Suppose my neighbor's home catches fire, and I have a length of garden hose four or five hundred feet away. If he can take my garden hose and connect it up with his hydrant, I may help him to put out his fire...I don't say to him before that operation, "Neighbor, my garden hose cost me $15; you have to pay me $15 for it."... I don't want $15--I want my garden hose back after the fire is over." (Source)

Of course, munitions, once expended, can't be returned. Tanks, self-propelled guns, trucks, etc., can be returned once Ukraine no longer needs them. But will Ukraine pay for their shipment back to point of origin, will Ukraine pay to have them refurbished (or replaced)? Again, rhetorical questions.

I would posit that the West has no real plan in Ukraine other than sticking a sharp stick in Russia's eye while saying "nyah nyah nyah nyah nyah, you can't touch me.²"

But what if Red China decides to get froggy over Taiwan, will we have enough stuff left over to deter that? I don't know, but it does make me wonder.

If you read the article cited as the source for the opening photo, you should realize that the tank (more properly armored fighting vehicle¹) is not dead. But once again it has shown its weaknesses when not properly used.

The infantry may not be glamorous, but you can't use tanks without their support. (Well, you can, but they're not coming back.)

Also the Russians are learning that you have to pay attention to logistics. Those infantry will be unhappy otherwise, they might even refuse to fight. I read about that here.

So yes, what the hell is going on out there?

Your thoughts?

¹ Tank was a code word coined in World War I to not give away what the British were building. Parts of the early tank looked like parts for a water tank, so ...

² Actually they can touch us, they still have a sizable stock of nuclear weapons, sure they may not all work, but they don't "all" have to.

Ukraine - The View from Poland, January Update

An emergency worker walks in front of a damaged hotel following a Russian attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022.
(AP Photo/Felipe Dana)
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While I was celebrating my daughter's birthday down in Maryland, the Russians were being, well, Russians. Ukraine isn't in the news much in the U.S. (that I've noticed) but the fighting continues. Here's a new report from our Polish correspondent.

Ewok Report part???

"All quiet on the Eastern front"

It has been some time since I had anything new to report on the  Russo-Ukrainian War. It was not due to laziness of my part, but due to Groundhog day - like repeating events.

1. Weekly Kyiv Fireworks

Russia didn't miss the opportunity to "celebrate" New Years Eve 2023 with some fireworks aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure.

Another Russian Missile Wave 

While damaging, the strikes seem to have had, predictably, no effect on the Ukrainian will to fight. So much for Douhet¹ via missiles. Note that the kamikaze drones from Iran have very small warheads, like 30kg of explosives, so any damage they do is relatively easy to repair - plus they are much less accurate than cruise missiles.

2. Bakhmut - Ghost of Christmas past - WW1

My take:

Putin: Alexa, play Attero Dominatus ...

Alexa: Cannot find Attero Dominatus, playing Fields of Verdun instead.

Editor's Note: Putin expects a triumph, gets a blood bath instead.

3. Long term prospects:

In the end it seems the result of war might hinge on who is left with last million artillery shells - 

My take: not gonna pretend I am omniscient, and anyone short of the Almighty himself will have troubles estimating the result on that one. That is, the 1915 shell shortage, revisited. Again, WW1 says hi ...

Might definitely deter offensive actions, though.

4. The Big "IF?"

I will leave it with big question mark, since only one side mentions it, but this has potential to bring much change to all equations:

Russia Planning New  Wave of Mobilizations

Ukrainians predict Russia declaring another wave of mobilization coming any day now. This would be akin to declaring first wave was mostly killed off/incapacitated  and unable to bring any progress. If that happens, I expect even more martial law system in Russia - border closing for, example, to avoid next wave of fleeing citizens, and brutal crackdown on any related protests. On the other hand there is only so much crackdown you can do when people realize they are being fed to the meat grinder, and they have better odds of surviving even in prisons ...

 

5. Energy front:

Europe has been spared big cold spells so far this winter, and in fact has enjoyed one of warmest New Year Eves ever, with temperatures of plus 18 degree Celsius recorded here in Poland. All this means prospects of Putin breaking Europe's will to support Ukraine are remote to say the least. Meanwhile, Russia has become so toxic that even the likes of Mrs Meloni of Italy, once thought to try and initiate some sort of about face in policy, declare support for Ukraine. 

 

Alrighty, thanks for reading and, I am amazed, this war is almost a year old ...

Paweł aka Ewok

¹ Giulo Douhet, an early advocate of strategic bombing.

Ukraine - The View from Poland, November Update, Addendum

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Editor's Note: This snippet was sent to me by our Polish correspondent, Paweł Kasperek. His thoughts and opinions on the matter do not necessarily match my own. I'll have some thoughts (read rant) after the following clips.

Ewok Report episode ? and a half.

A small update to latest Ewok report, just enhancing on some topics I mentioned too briefly for my own taste.

Poland shopping spree in depth and detail: what, where, why, and how ...

Polish Military Modernization

Russian military rebelling prospects:

What if the Russian Military Rebels Against the Kremlin?

Some analogies to WW1 are in place, but it definitely lacks the crucial component, an organized and able opposition inside Russia itself ...

EDITOR: To say that the situation in Ukraine is complex might be an understatement. But nearly every event in history where one group has used military force against another has been complex. Anything to do with Russia and the pieces of its former empire is even more complex. At least by my reckoning.

An interesting (and seems to me very pro-Ukrainian) Wikipedia article which summarizes what led us to this point in time is here. If you want a Russian point of view, head to rt.com, if you can stomach outright propaganda that is.

Ukrainian propaganda is more palatable, at least the instances I follow (see Operator Starsky on YouTube and this report.) Russian propaganda has never really been for external consumption, it's meant solely for the Russian people. A captive audience in many ways.

The latest I'm hearing vis-à-vis Ukraine is that the Russians wish to de-Nazify Ukraine. While there have been incidents of Ukrainians wearing WWII Nazi symbols (if you know where to look you can buy them yourself online) it's not unusual. (Look up our own Marines posing with an "SS Flag" in Afghanistan.) This article addresses that Nazi aspect. (Hey, it's a thing right, claim the other side are Nazis!)

Let's face it, Russians are suspicious of the outside world (get invaded numerous times over the centuries and you might sympathize). Pushing NATO closer and closer to the Russian border may have triggered this reaction on Putin's part. Then again, the plebiscites and the pro-Russian sentiment in Donbas and Luhansk remind me of the Hitlerian agitation over the Sudetenland in 1938.

Sometimes people just start reacting and things gain a life and momentum of their own. I'm sure Putin's generals told him what he wanted to hear, they probably believed themselves what they were telling him. "Invade Ukraine? No problem, we'll be in Kiev in a couple of days, a week at the outside."

Do you think our current crop of generals don't tell our current crop of politicians the same thing? What the politicos want to hear is almost never synonymous with the truth. And those politicians are usually too ignorant to know better.

Miscommunications, lies, half-truths, and outright bullshit, none of these things are a sound basis for international relations.

Too bad that it's all most politicians know.

/rant

Ukraine - The View from Poland, November Update

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Editor's Note: This post was submitted by our Polish correspondent Paweł Kasperek. His thoughts and opinions on the matter do not necessarily match my own. Map is included above to help get your bearings while reading.

Ewok Report, part whatever ...

1. Fall of Kherson.

As we presumably all know, Russia seems to have made first rational strategic decision of the war, and retreated troops from Kherson area on the West side of Dnepr river, while they still could.

It is assumed that was due to new, lately appointed CINC for the entire war. General Surovikin. He gained reputation for ruthlessness, but also for efficiency in the Russian expeditionary war in Syria.

He apparently convinced Putin that bleeding the men and material in an untenable position is not worth political goal of annexation. The men and arms instead would be better used shoring up the defenses, until, hopefully, mobilization effort shows results.

2. Bakhmut brawl.

Meanwhile, only area where Russians still were attacking was the area near of city of Bakhmut, south of areas liberated by Ukrainians earlier near Kharkiv. Note that main effort here was not by main army, but Wagner group mercenaries, drawing heavily on prisoners released in exchange for volunteering. There has been a speculation that this offensive, bloody and at a crawling pace of maybe kilometer per week, is vanity project of the Wagner founder and long time Kremlin insider Prighozin, former prisoner himself in 1980s, who managed to become first restaurateur, then catering provider for the Kremlin, earning nickname of "Putin's Cook". The speculation seems to be valid, because originally it was designed as a part of two-pincer move to encircle Ukrainian forces between Bakhmut and northern occupied areas near Izyum, but the latter are long gone due to Ukrainian counteroffensives, leaving one pincer with nothing to connect with ...

3. V-1 offensive, redux.

On another front, one that is far behind conventional lines, Russia seems to be betting on massive waves of drones and cruise missiles aimed at energetic and heating infrastructure, in Kyiv but as well in other major Ukraine cities. Last and most massive wave of attacks happened on the 15th of November. The aim is, like with V-1 strikes of WW2 to break civilian morale, with missiles because Russia failed to secure skies enough for conventional bombing. Increased precision of the weapons means increased physical results, but as history shows bombing the enemy into surrender rarely works - about the only exception was nuclear bombing of Japan, and not because of direct effect itself, because previous bombings were as devastating if not more, but because it gave Emperor the excuse he needed to intervene into political tug of war between war and capitulate factions in the government.

Ukrainians will heat themselves with wood-fueled stoves made from barrels and pipes if needed, but they wont give up.

4. Polish border incident.

This ties up nicely into next event, as stray missile landed 6 km into Poland, killing 2 people at relatively empty countryside. Lots of wild speculations were cast initially, but joint investigation by US and Polish services indicates it was Ukrainian SA-10 (S-300) SAM which apparently failed to self-destruct after missing intercepted Russian missile.

Thankfully government played it cool and I think this is good news. Bad news is, next time it could be Russian missile, with half ton warhead, in some more urban area. If there were 50 victims, I can't even imagine extent of possible pressure on government to exact some sort of revenge then.

5. What next?

It seems that both sides are not even nearing the point that they could consider even meeting , let alone making peace.

For the Ukrainian side, CDR Salamander has excellent piece on possible offensive COA:

http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/11/welcome-to-my-post-fall-of-kherson-jopg.html

Despite being primarily navalist, I hold him in high esteem, and he has been in enough joint staff operations to know what he is talking about.

For the Russian side, it is much harder to predict. The very decision to invade was a massive gamble, the way in which it was executed, even more gamble and both those gambles were evidently made on wrong assumptions about everything from own forces, to Ukrainian resistance, to West support for Ukraine.

But, from what I see, except for Bakhmut, the idea for now is to hold defence, train up massive million or 2 millions strong army and attack again in spring or summer.

The problem is, with losses of tanks and artillery pieces going in thousands, and overall bad state of recruits. The most intelligent ones, and the most enterprising made their way to places like Georgia, Khazakhstan, and even Mongolia in numbers exceeding those mobilised by wide margin, leaving military with sad bunch of 40- to -50 year olds with bad condition and often alcohol problems. (This also cripples the economy, but at this moment only part of economy Putin gives rats ass about is weapons and ammo production).

Speaking of weapons producers, it seems years of hollowed out budgets resulted in factories ready to deliver half-tested Su-57 and Armata tanks - in single digit numbers, or at best dozens a year. Russia had to resort to plundering Belarus semi-ally for weapons and ammo, and reportedly buying ammo in North Korea. What is proven, that in regards for drones, Russia has to rely on Iran. So the mighty have fallen... Stalin is rolling in his grave, probably.

As for the territorial ways of Russian advance, there is three possible places.

1.Suicide drive thru lower Dnieper, to retake Kherson and go further to Nikolaev and Odessa.

Least likely. Forcing major river is hard, it took Soviet almost million casualties in 1943. And if they planned to attack there again they would not give up Kherson.

2.Second drive on Kyiv.

Not likely either. Some have speculated about Putin strong-arming Lukashenko, into sending his meagre army to shore up Russian numbers. Reality is that Byelorussians have even less incentives to fight than Russians, and best case they would melt away, worst case, turn guns on Russians... and the last thing Putin is need another country to pacify, and bad example for own troops. Note that in 2020 when Lukashenko had to pacify massive protests after he falsified elections, he didn't trust his army and used loyalty-picked security detachments.

3.Take control of Donbas, entrench and ask for peace.

My most likely Red COA¹. Bakhmut drive might be way to complete territorial takeover of Donetsk province, allowing for a settlement along the lines of control. Of course there is a big question of what Ukrainian side manages to recapture in the meantime ... And if they will be willing to agree to such peace.

If they complete the actions envisioned in Salamanders article, the fall of Crimea can not be excluded. I decline to envisage possible results for the political stability in Russia ... or its military reactions then.

Ewok out!

links to interesting things:

Kherson campaign analysis in detail

https://youtu.be/fxR1jmZTLew

Bakhmut offensive analysis 

https://youtu.be/xRjnbACvsXs

 

 

¹ COA = Course of Action

Ukraine - The View from Poland

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Editor's Note: This post was submitted by our Polish correspondent Paweł Kasperek. His thoughts and opinions on the matter do not necessarily match my own. Editorial changes were made to correct grammar, spelling, and use American English (a pox on that extra "u"). English is not Paweł's native tongue, but his English is way better than my (non-existent) Polish. With that being said, take it away Paweł ...

Things are accelerating again.

After a somewhat static late spring and summer, the war in Ukraine has suddenly picked up speed. First, in an event reminiscent of Black Day of Imperial German Army (Amiens), Ukrainians counterattacked in the east of Kharkiv, liberating in a week of swift strikes more land than Russians managed to crawl into during the past 4 months in the Donbas. (and discovering, as in Bucha, mass graves ...) Then they started rolling up the Kherson bridgehead, in a deadly one-two punch that caught the Russian Army off-guard. (Russian pullback.)

Putin reacted by declaring mass mobilization order, which has officially been only partial, but in rural, and especially ethnic minority areas amounted to total, with some villages being half-emptied of any men between 18 and 60. This prompted a mass flight of Russian men to neighboring countries, be it Finland, Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and even Mongolia (!).  Those wealthy enough, bought out tickets to places like Turkey or India, before they were sold out at astronomical prices. Simultaneously, Putin announced (and at lightning-fast  speed executed) four sham referendums in the four provinces of Ukraine held, or partially held by Russia. Apart from voting at gunpoint, and a ludicrous 90 percent plus support claimed, the very fact that Russia doesn't even control most of the land in the Kherson and Zaporozhe regions means it was just a formality to mask a decree by Putin. But it had a twofold legal meaning for those who accepted them: first, since they were part of Russia now, they were places where freshly mobilized manpower could be legally employed. Second it would fall into Russian military doctrine clause of using nukes for defence of homeland if it was in dire threat. Veiled nuclear threats followed soon after. (Russian mobilization.)

Then, in another escalatory measure, someone blew up both Nord Stream pipelines, making the return to pre-war gas exports levels to EU pretty much impossible. Russians were quick to blame Ukrainians and the US, while most of the Western world accused Russia. I will let you decide, but IMHO it is much more likely that it was Russian job, for simple reason that no US government would risk the blowback of such operation. (Navigation warnings re: Nord pipeline.)

Finally just as Putin has been celebrating 70th birthday, someone (Ukraine did not claim responsibility, but had not hidden their joy) blew up half of the bridge spanning the Kerch strait separating Crimea from mainland Russia. This was something Ukrainians wanted to do for a long time, and here their action timed perfectly as birthday candles ...  so I am 100% sure it was their action. Looks like vehicle borne explosives. (Kerch bridge destruction.)

So, all in all things have been accelerating since the start of September and the  trajectory is not looking good. Mass mobilized Russian troops are under-equipped, under-trained, and will probably take massive losses.

This picture of Putin's Volkssturm is worth thousand words. (You'll have to chase the link due to copyright. - Ed)

Apparently some units have been receiving footwraps¹ due to a lack of socks.  Protective gear² is lacking, weapons outdated, and training almost nonexistent from 2 days to week before sent off to the front

Infrastructure is being targeted outside of the immediate conflict area. Nuclear sabre rattling is getting noisier and noisier. Russian 101st KGB (Keyboard Guards Brigade³) is calling for massive attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, which might be undoable because Russia is running out of cruise missiles, and their airpower never managed to become an effective deep strike force, and overall precision of their munitions is sorely lacking.

Unless they turn to nukes since they don't need accuracy⁴ ...

¹ Socks are a relatively new thing in the Russian Army.

² Nuclear, biological, and chemical protective gear.

³ I have no idea what this is. Sarcasm maybe?

⁴ Um, well ... Any use of nuclear weapons crosses a threshold which the Soviets and their Russian successors don't recognize. In terms of Western thought, a nuke is a nuke is a nuke, size DOES NOT MATTER. Traditional Western theory is that ANY use of nuclear weapons will trigger a massive, strategic response. It's all part of that Mutual Assured Destruction thing. Do I think the current "leaders" of the West would follow through on that? Ask the Afghans what they think of Western resolve, there's your answer. I'm sure Putin doesn't think they would either. Else he'd keep his nuclear sword in its scabbard.