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| Mi-28N of the Russian Air Force (Source) |
Hello
there!
Here is
Paweł from Ewok Report!
So, my bet
was correct, another week has passed and what new do we get in the
Russo-Ukraine
"totally-not-war-and-if-you-call-it-that-way-youre-going-to-prison-for-15-years"?
Admittedly,
not much
More
Russian helos shot down - this time apparently by newest British missile, Starstreak:
Apparently someone took care UKR operators get good training because unlike most IR-homing fire-and-forget MANPADS , Starstreak requires operator to keep target aimed throughout the engagement. Hence the relatively late debut of the missile...
Near Kyiv
Russians seem to be withdrawing for the moment... leaving some grisly evidence
behind.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-accuses-russia-massacre-00022595
Not even
bothering to bury the victims ,even just to cover their crimes. Horrible.
Anyway
troops gained from Kyiv retreat probably will be sent to Donbas, to reinforce
fighting there in hopes of either pushing Ukrainians out of entire Donetsk and
Lugansk provinces, or better yet encircling some Ukrainian units and destroying
them.
So where it
leaves us with prospects for the future?
https://www.politico.eu/article/peace-putsch-europe-syria-refugees-ukraine-russia/
I am sad to
predict long war is the way it will end.
Ukrainians
can give Russia bloody nose, but Russian society lacks access to independent
news, and is not likely to rebel short of outright hunger or losses counted in
hundreds, not dozens of thousands.
And even
then it is likely that outcome will be not democratic Russia but some other
form of dictatorship, as was in 1917.
Any attempt
to deal with Putin will end up like the infamous pact between frog and the
scorpion. (Here)
Time and again Putin has shown his word cannot be trusted in the slightest.
So this
leaves us with prospect of Russia conquering what it can, and devastating what
it can not.
I think it
is time to take gloves off and give Ukrainians some serious stuff, capable of
hitting Russia back, like cruise missiles (we don’t have much in the ballistic
missiles department since last Pershing went under guillotine...) - and long
range AD systems like Patriot.
We must
consider that war might take years and we can afford few months to train UKR
crews for them.
Last but
not least, a curious case of exploding fuel tanks:
Ukrainians
deny that it was their raid. It could be theirs, but why would they deny it
then, as it would be major propaganda coup?
I can
imagine Putin making false flag attack to incite his population, but then some
residential buildings or school or hospital would make more sense... than fuel
his troops actually need!
Or could it
be Russian own helo crews are so incompetent as to blow up own fuel depot?
Fog of war
is strong with this news...
Ewok out!
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Boy that Starstreak can really hustle! The BBC has an interesting vid on the Russian 331st Guards Parachute Regiment in Ukraine. As this war drags out war crimes will take quite a while to prosecute.
ReplyDeleteIt is all not good Pawel - but predictable when there was no quick conclusion. And given what increasingly seems to be a significant world wide economic event through food and fuel (and refugees from that fallout, as the Politico article notes), I suspect at some point the Western powers will have their attention turned more to domestic issues.
ReplyDeleteAnd even if there is complete victory for the Ukrainians, this will take years to recover from.
Stay safe.
Absolutely agree with prescriptions. Unfortunately the current "Administration" seems determined to slow walk effective aid (i.e. Patriots etc.). This is what you get when the (soiled) doves at the State Department are in charge.
ReplyDeleteThank you again, Pawel. As depressing as this is to read, it much be much worse to write.
ReplyDelete"So this leaves us with prospect of Russia conquering what it can, and devastating what it can not."
ReplyDeleteYes, yes it does.
John Blackshoe
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/05/nuke-cruise-missile-00023034 for effs sake, everyone who can - write to your representative, senator, this needs to be adressed. SLCM-N is much needed to deter Russian doctrine of using ractical nukes when conventional defeat looms...
ReplyDeleteAlso, it would be a good start for GLCM-N to be deployed in Europe in repeating of Reagan's 1980s move.
Thanks for the update, Paweł. A very distressing situation, no matter the outcome, the Ukrainian people are facing even harder times to come.
ReplyDeleteWhy the return to manually guided Anti-Aircraft Missiles, I wonder? Fire and Forget means you get to return to cover ASAP. The guy standing up in the field is very vulnerable and dead guys don't aim well. The only reason I can think of is to correct for deployed flares, but as fast as that missile was the flare isn't going to be far from the Helo during missile TOF.
ReplyDeleteNot a criticism, just an "I wonder".
Same here. If the helo has an attentive gunner, he'll probably kill the guy who just killed him. Maybe because the thing is so damned fast? I dunno, shoot and scoot is the way to survive.
Deletethe idea is to avoid any jamming, be it flares or "hot brick" IR devices...
Deleteas for the survivability of the shooter I presume it is really hard to spot single gunner, using all camo and cover available, from the air, and with missile being so fast it takes like 3 seconds at best from launch to kill
I knows a guy who was a BAE Systems missile/hit’ile chap and he works with me at Duxford, so I’ll ask him and if its something I think I can share then I will get back.
Deletehttps://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/04/05/poland-signs-475-billion-abrams-tank-deal-as-russias-war-speeds-procurements/ small update on Polish rearmament effort
ReplyDeletenot e the "system of systems" approach with HIMARS providing artillery support, Patriots SAM umbrella, and F-35s air superiority over battlefield
Great stuff Pawel. I hope those weps and that training flow free and fast to help them. The Russians may be pulling back for now, but once they're rested and rearmed, there will be more scorched earth.
ReplyDeleteIf nothing else, this war is showing us that the power is coming back to the infantry, when they can knock out multi-million systems of Armor and aircraft with 100,000 systems. The atrocity outside Kiev reminds me of your own Katyn Forest, on a much smaller scale.
ReplyDeleteNothing like an original aircraft design in the MI-28(Sarc). I guess that crew was star-struck...
ReplyDeleteThank you, Pawel.
ReplyDelete