Ukraine - The View from Poland

(Source)

Editor's Note: This post was submitted by our Polish correspondent Paweł Kasperek. His thoughts and opinions on the matter do not necessarily match my own. Editorial changes were made to correct grammar, spelling, and use American English (a pox on that extra "u"). English is not Paweł's native tongue, but his English is way better than my (non-existent) Polish. With that being said, take it away Paweł ...

Things are accelerating again.

After a somewhat static late spring and summer, the war in Ukraine has suddenly picked up speed. First, in an event reminiscent of Black Day of Imperial German Army (Amiens), Ukrainians counterattacked in the east of Kharkiv, liberating in a week of swift strikes more land than Russians managed to crawl into during the past 4 months in the Donbas. (and discovering, as in Bucha, mass graves ...) Then they started rolling up the Kherson bridgehead, in a deadly one-two punch that caught the Russian Army off-guard. (Russian pullback.)

Putin reacted by declaring mass mobilization order, which has officially been only partial, but in rural, and especially ethnic minority areas amounted to total, with some villages being half-emptied of any men between 18 and 60. This prompted a mass flight of Russian men to neighboring countries, be it Finland, Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and even Mongolia (!).  Those wealthy enough, bought out tickets to places like Turkey or India, before they were sold out at astronomical prices. Simultaneously, Putin announced (and at lightning-fast  speed executed) four sham referendums in the four provinces of Ukraine held, or partially held by Russia. Apart from voting at gunpoint, and a ludicrous 90 percent plus support claimed, the very fact that Russia doesn't even control most of the land in the Kherson and Zaporozhe regions means it was just a formality to mask a decree by Putin. But it had a twofold legal meaning for those who accepted them: first, since they were part of Russia now, they were places where freshly mobilized manpower could be legally employed. Second it would fall into Russian military doctrine clause of using nukes for defence of homeland if it was in dire threat. Veiled nuclear threats followed soon after. (Russian mobilization.)

Then, in another escalatory measure, someone blew up both Nord Stream pipelines, making the return to pre-war gas exports levels to EU pretty much impossible. Russians were quick to blame Ukrainians and the US, while most of the Western world accused Russia. I will let you decide, but IMHO it is much more likely that it was Russian job, for simple reason that no US government would risk the blowback of such operation. (Navigation warnings re: Nord pipeline.)

Finally just as Putin has been celebrating 70th birthday, someone (Ukraine did not claim responsibility, but had not hidden their joy) blew up half of the bridge spanning the Kerch strait separating Crimea from mainland Russia. This was something Ukrainians wanted to do for a long time, and here their action timed perfectly as birthday candles ...  so I am 100% sure it was their action. Looks like vehicle borne explosives. (Kerch bridge destruction.)

So, all in all things have been accelerating since the start of September and the  trajectory is not looking good. Mass mobilized Russian troops are under-equipped, under-trained, and will probably take massive losses.

This picture of Putin's Volkssturm is worth thousand words. (You'll have to chase the link due to copyright. - Ed)

Apparently some units have been receiving footwraps¹ due to a lack of socks.  Protective gear² is lacking, weapons outdated, and training almost nonexistent from 2 days to week before sent off to the front

Infrastructure is being targeted outside of the immediate conflict area. Nuclear sabre rattling is getting noisier and noisier. Russian 101st KGB (Keyboard Guards Brigade³) is calling for massive attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, which might be undoable because Russia is running out of cruise missiles, and their airpower never managed to become an effective deep strike force, and overall precision of their munitions is sorely lacking.

Unless they turn to nukes since they don't need accuracy⁴ ...

¹ Socks are a relatively new thing in the Russian Army.

² Nuclear, biological, and chemical protective gear.

³ I have no idea what this is. Sarcasm maybe?

⁴ Um, well ... Any use of nuclear weapons crosses a threshold which the Soviets and their Russian successors don't recognize. In terms of Western thought, a nuke is a nuke is a nuke, size DOES NOT MATTER. Traditional Western theory is that ANY use of nuclear weapons will trigger a massive, strategic response. It's all part of that Mutual Assured Destruction thing. Do I think the current "leaders" of the West would follow through on that? Ask the Afghans what they think of Western resolve, there's your answer. I'm sure Putin doesn't think they would either. Else he'd keep his nuclear sword in its scabbard.