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| The guided-missile destroyer USS Gravely (DDG 107) launches Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles in response to increased Iranian-backed Houthi malign behavior in the Red Sea Jan. 12, 2024. As a part of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, Gravely is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the Middle East. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jonathan Word Source) |
Just as I have sent my first report, a few new analyses showed up on my radar which can help with the understanding of global situation.
A focus on Red Sea actions, from a very good channel by US veterans, especially note the economics of war: using a million dollar missile is a bad investment when killing 10,000 dollar drone, unless you consider it saves 100 millions or more of wares aboard container ship (not to mention lives of those onboard).
North Korea rumblings in focus, with some other developments also covered.
And as a final addendum, news emerging of huge corruption in the PLA, even prestigious rocket forces.
My take is, Xi noticed how Russian corruption hurt their Ukrainian war, and went hunting corruption in his own armed forces. Good news, the corruption seems so big that any war against Taiwan might be postponed. Bad news, when the hunt is over, PLA will emerge more effective, and more loyal to Xi. This might take some time, though to produce the results Xi wants.
This is Ewok, out for now.
From my observations, the corruption in the PRC is so endemic that it cannot be rooted out and nothing Xi will do can end it. All aspects of that society, indeed any society that is so autocratic, will always be so as it is necessary for the underlings to lie about the what is actually going on to survive. To be truthful about actual achievements as opposed to leader imposed goals is to cut your own throat. Not to say that upper management is often in place because of connections rather than any competence. Competence is seen as a threat by fellow management types, and the capable are swiftly sabotaged.
ReplyDeleteThis sort of organization is endemic to China and was in place long before there was any hint of Communism. You only need to look at the scandal about the number of reported school children that was recently exposed. The number of children in schools was vastly overstated so that officials could claim more resources for their schools, and obviously their own pockets. It turned out the the actual numbers were millions less than claimed, suddenly revealing a demographic crisis. The PLA has the same problem with commanders wildly overstating the numbers of soldiers in their units. No one really knows the actual physical size of military as so much is hidden.
Because the PRC is a one man state, telling the truth to the leader is very dangerous, it is better to lie and hope to not be found out than to be honest and be punished immediately.
Anonymous, I'm sure your words are seen as a blessing to the Think Tanks. China is so opaque to Western eyes that our "Observations" are highly suspect to be mostly wishful thinking. Yes, they have problems. Everybody does except if you accept CNN the USA (insert USA chant here).
DeleteI say that because you hid behind Anonymous and the masses of anonymous documenting the Russian failures in Ukraine have been proven mostly wrong on the ground in Ukraine.
After all it IS Sun Tzu that said so much about war being deceit.
Snip: "Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak."
"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles."
"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."
"In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity."
"All warfare is based on deception."
Just how many effective Nuclear weapon strikes do you need to ruin your day? How many hypersonic missiles into those Jet fuel bladders wrapped around high explosive Aircraft carriers do you need? The 4th rate military Hothi's seem to be doing a bang-up job emptying our Agis equipped anti-missile missiles. Odd we CANNOT Reload them without a return to a safe port. Awkward, eh?
We better hurry since Xi is rooting out corruption (in Russia they defenestrate problems out of tall buildings to Aesop's amusement) and the numbers of effective weapons will rise a bit. Please inform Loyd Austin to hurry please, lest the window of success in defeating China close.
That is if Loyd is alive, that is. Seems even the Ukrainians announced his death in a Russian missile strike? Really bad prostate cancer that is.
Russian Maskirovka was shown effective in getting NATO trained Ukrainians to plow into live minefields and live fire boxes of Russian artillery (OH MY The Russians are OUT of Artillery shells HOW MANY TIMES?) over and over again. Seems Media reports are ah, propaganda perhaps? A mission kill of a single Russian landing craft is recycled well over a dozen times last month alone to make it look like the whole Russian navy was ablaze and sinking. BTW the Landing craft has been repaired and back in service. Unlike the US AND British Navy, the Russians seem able to repair battlefield damage.
At least Ewok posts under his name and I noticed not so much Ukraine is winning comments this time. Poland, I noticed isn't buying American weapons but South Korea weapons for its newly reformed military.
I did some number crunching and as I DOUBT South Korea does credit card sales on tanks and aircraft that Poland's gross domestic product has spent well over 20% of their announced income over several years. And those numbers DON'T include the massive cost for supporting equipment, ammo, supplies and training folks. Seems that point of support or lack of was made recently in Ukraine about the Challenger and M1 Abrams recently.
I bet that American debt dollars are paying for most of that improvement. Just as Ukraine, Poland I fear is the next manpower supply for the American Empires proxy war against Russia. Once we kill off the last few Ukrainians that is.
What did Kissinger say:
To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.
Henry A. Kissinger
On the other hand, in defense of Any Mouse, the issues of lies and outright falsifications to one's superiors for various reasons have always been part of the Chinese 'genetic' code. Lie to keep your superior happy. Lie to keep your superior from finding out how bad things are. Lie to not have your superior lose face, or you to lose face. Lie to line one's pockets. Lie to scare the foreign monkey-people. Lie to one's parents, lie to one's spouse, lie to one's family and town and lord and even lie to the garbage sweeper. Because in a society that has always preferred the superficial over the factual, lying is how one survives.
DeleteEspecially in a typical Chinese government, where telling the truth can be more deadly than a deadly falsehood.
As to Xi, he's been shown to use falsehoods and lies and the actual truth to smoke out his political opponents and have them 'disappear,' whether to a 'treatment' facility where they come back brainwashed long enough to support Xi and then 'retire' or actually end up in some crematorium or ditch somewhere.
There's a video of China's 'new' supersonic anti-US carrier cruise missiles being paraded on some military parade, and you can see the skins of the missiles flex like paper or canvas as the transport vehicles trundle by. Skins that wouldn't last under 60mph movement, let alone supersonic.
China lies, to itself, to it's people, to the animals, to the world. It's what China does best.
👍
Deleteregarding the mentioned LST:
Deletehttps://news.yahoo.com/satellite-shows-destroyed-novocherkassk-landing-165756121.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9sZW5zLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJ8Evl51Qz9AL-ZEa6u_iPvYcBkO9aLfyi8Vq0hMVRqi3qH7lf94unSp9JajnyM-3N1lqruCQezaPNKvwk8puLUFd55GbcPL_DnKQOx10q16a-reZtBwVvqzHqdgRbg4lVgbgJnxPqEarjgNER03SOZ0RI9LvvB2kpZmgvZKeM6r
look at the wreck burned down to waterline and say it has already been repaired...
Russias LST force has veen heavily hit with at least 3 total losses
One early in the war in Berdyansk, Tochka strike,
One in Sevastopol later in the war, and one now in Theodosia, both victims of presumably western cruise missiles
The most vulnerable ship is one docked at pierside, unable to maneuver.
See Battleship Row.
BTW Chinese must take it into account as they prepare for Taiwan invasion.
Even should they capture a port, with island so tiny it would be immediately under artillery and MLRS fire, not to mention bigger missiles.
And possibly targetting those laoding troops and supplies in mainland.
Can you imagine what havoc could wreak just one 154 missile salvo from US SSGN on a port ladden with ships ?
I think someone in the PLAN has hard task of telling this to Xi.
The major point is that the Chinese are Chinese first before being communists, just like the Russians are Russian first, they act out of their historical imperatives. They will not suddenly transform into a modern Western state. In both countries corruption is a way of life deeply baked into the society and all efforts to eradicate or even attenuate it have failed.
DeleteIn both, they can be effective militarily as long as the solution only requires masses of troops willing or forced to die in disproportionate numbers. Logistics always comes back to bite them, as in Korea.
I see the public warnings as the diplomatic version of yelling 'HALT!" three times - and publicly being seen to yell "HALT!" three times - before getting serious. That way, if we do end up saying, "OK YOU DUMB FORNICATIONS! WE WARNED YOU!" and launching something a kin to the raid on Dresden, we can tell the UN, which will naturally condemn "US Aggression!!!", "Eff off, these thugs were warned and continued their illegal attacks on civilian targets and legal commerce. You expect us to be world police, fine, we policed.. Shove it."
ReplyDeleteRe: China. As the Annie Mouse said, corruption in that region is almost a cultural thing that goes back centuries. Similar to the Arab and Turk system of the bribery needed to get anything accomplished. The local official needs a big bribe to sign a paper so that he can make the payment to his boss, who has to pay his boss, who makes sure his boss gets his cut, which is used in part to pay the head crook so he can keep his job.
"The local official needs a big bribe to sign a paper so that he can make the payment to his boss, who has to pay his boss, who makes sure his boss gets his cut, which is used in part to pay the head crook so he can keep his job."
DeleteExactly how Gov. Ryan of Illinois ended up in jail. A truck driver got into an accident that killed 4 kids. When the cops interviewed him they found he didn't speak English. But by Federal law you HAVE to be able to speak, read and write English at a basic level to get a CDL. So how did he get his CDL?
He bribed the manager of the local Sect'y of State facility. At which point, instead of hanging the manager out to dry completely, the U.S. Attorney (not the State's Atty, it was a Federal crime) convicted him and then asked a simple question; where did the money go?
Well, it turns out that he had to pay his boss to keep his job. And he had to pay *his* boss to keep *his* job. Which got followed all the way up to the Secretary of State's campaign fund, who, when this all had happened, was successfully running for Governor. The CCP has nothing on the Democratic Party of Illinois.
Well, I see the purse swinging has commenced.......
ReplyDelete😂
DeletePawel - There is a glaring discrepancy in terms of the cost of a missile versus the cost of a drone (or drones, for that matter). That said, I do not wonder that the implications not acting are greater than the "cost" of acting (e.g., the actual significant destruction or even sinking of a ship).
ReplyDeleteSmarter minds than I are likely theorizing that with the increase in the capacity of drones, we are in a transitional period of technology advance that impacts war from time to time. How that works out in terms of counter measures is likely far beyond my ability to see.
Too bad those "smarter minds" than you are not in charge right now.
DeleteBG
In expending expensive ordnance against an enemy, we need to shift focus from el cheapo drones, which should be justification for launching our pricey response. But, make sure the cost to the bad guys is more than a mobile truck launcher. Take out the Houthi headquarters, and the port facility where munitions are delivered. If those happen to take out adjacent mud huts occupied by innocent civilians, and the port facilities are essential to food and fuel for civilians, well, too bad, so sad. Don't shoot explodey stuff at Americans and we won't make you cry.
DeleteAnd, for the UN who will show up complaining, we need to quit subsidizing their grift, and tell them "Get off my lawn!"
And, for our "friends" in the House of Saud, we need to remind them that the Houthis are THEIR neighbors, and THEIR problem, so don't expect us to protect their sea borne commerce and income related to same. We've sold them some nice ships and planes and they need to use them to protect their interests. We will protect ours, but we are not their mercenary force to do dirty jobs beneath the dignity of the Saudi citizenry.
"War is hell" as W.T. Sherman said, so don't start one.
JB
Hear, hear!
DeleteJB - The choice of targets surprises me as well. There are far more critical targets that could deliver the same message for the cost of the missiles we are using.
DeleteWar evolves, pity is that much blood and treasure must be lost before the Leadership learns the lessons.
ReplyDeleteBattleship row at Pearl Harbor springs to mind.
War does evolve, look how what started at Battleship row at Pear Harbor ended..
DeleteYes Rob, your correct. How much blood and treasure did we expend unlearning the Battleship Line of Battle thing?
DeleteHow much will we lose unlearning the Mighty Aircraft Carrier? The bladder of jet fuel surrounding a cargo hold of high explosives.
As a combat medic I see the American and civilian wounded in our ongoing series of petty wars.
War is both ever changing in form, yet fundamentally immutable in its very nature.
DeleteTechnology and manpower dictate tactics, yet the tactics even gone obsolete remain in the books even until circumstances allow them to resurface sometimes centuries later
Hannibal looking at Zhukov planning encirclement of 6th army at Stalingrad would smile and say, well learned boy, exactly like I have done to Romans at Cannae.
The Houthis are taking advantage of the "corrupt, patriarchal, oppressive, Eurocentric, Christian" mores and ideals that value human life and scream that any civilian death is unacceptable. So they distribute the various parts of their terror machine throughout the civilian population which they subdue by terror and brutality (although, that's not really any different than what the "legitimate" Yemeni government did). So any attack on them will, of necessity, cause civilian deaths, which they will use for propaganda to denounce Western Aggression!!! and which the UN will use to condemn the US and western Europe. Exactly the same as the Hamas Sturmabteilung.
ReplyDeleteI wonder what people like the Houthis are thinking when they see that Israel is actively opposing those who condemn its actions in Gaza, and the lack so far of any actual effective measures being taken to stop them.
DeleteI know they have thousands here, but do we have any reliable assets (eyes) in China?
ReplyDeleteYes we do. But is anyone in power listening to them? No...
DeleteNice report, Paweł. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteOne can lob expensive missiles at drones and low-quality missiles. Yes, individually expensive but effective.
ReplyDeleteOr one can just use a squadron of B-52s to arclight a whole swath of Houti-land.
Either way, the lackwits, corruptocrats and kleptocrats at the UN will bitch and moan about it. Notice how they're not bitching and moaning about the attacks on shipping? Hmmm.
Maybe we need to arclight the UN? And the Hague just for good measure?
Beans what was the final result of "Arc lighting" Vietnam? Didn't we end up with East Asia Wargames 2nd place there? We were in good company as France already had been driven out earlier.
DeletePlease explain how bombing someone that has been bombed into the stone age ALLREADY is going to work out?
Well, I'd think bombing their leadership structure versus bombing jungle, might have a different effect. Which seems to be what the Israelis are trying to do. It also seems that what we're trying to do is protect the worlds logistics capability.
Deletejuvat
Not a bad plan, aside from FINDING where their leadership IS at that fleeting moment. Leadership IF properly done has ALREADY trained their replacements to step up and continue the mission. Something 20+ years in the military taught me.
DeleteWe can make a Martyr of someone, but his replacement is already on the job. The Saudi's had been fighting the Hothi's since 2015 and thus the Hothi have become quite adept in dealing with American weaponry in that time frame.
According to a Marine Recon friend of mine, Godspeed you, Aegerjon, Arclights and other bombings of the North Viet countryside, including various versions of the Ho Chi Mihn Trail and of known weapons storage areas and such as long as we were politically allowed by our leaders of the time, were quite effective. There would be a noticeable decline of activity and materials moving south, along with a decline of both numbers and quality of troops moving south. Then there were the poor bastard civilians that were basically slaves to the NVA forces...
DeleteWe did bomb them, when allowed, to beyond the Stone Age. And then our people in the States would cut the rug out from under our and South Vietnam's feet, and it would start back up again.
If we had been allowed to cut off the Norks from their benefactors, by destroying harbors, rail facilities, 'civilian' airports, 'civilian' power stations, leadership facilities and such, then, well, would have been a shorter war.
How do I know? Because things like the Son Tay Raid, which was a successful failure (totally destroyed any NVA in the area, but the prisoners were moved a week earlier) forced the Viets to move prisoners from outlying facilities into the Hanoi Hilton, where they actually got better care...
As to protecting the world's logistics capabilities, that's what navies are for. Which is why so many nations that have navies are joining in on the coalition, from France and Italy and Great Britain, to India and Japan.
Yes, destroy the launchers and the supplies, but go after those who control the launchers and any supply runs to replace equipment and personnel. And then destroy one grid square or so of Houti land and say, "This is what we can do without trying hard. Do you really want to push this issue?"
But that would require an administration that is serious about bringing peace to the area, rather than one who is funding the Gazans, the Iranians and others who are supplying the Houtis and ordering the Houtis and... yeah, FJB.
I don't know, the Israeli's seem to be doing a pretty good job at finding and applying the ultimate punishment to Hamas Leaders in the past as well as since Oct 7. Again, I think we should help them with supplies and we take charge of protecting the sea lanes. I've heard the US Navy is pretty good at that.
Deletejuvat
Much of how we resolve the Red Sea situation will depend on what set of rules we and our allies decide to use. Do we stick with the Olympic Boxing version that is based on the"corrupt, patriarchal, oppressive, Eurocentric, Christian" values that value and try to protect and respect human life? Or do we jettison those and play by what I see as a typical Oriental and Arab, bare knuckle, no rules, who cares about human life type of engagement?
ReplyDeleteCameras are everywhere today, public opinion will have a say.
DeleteIf we are not going to sacrifice our progeny and borrowed money to win a war, then why fight one at all?
DeleteOur ability to act as the world's lone super power is but a memory, and our present leadership is waging war on our American way of life and values. There is no reason to engage in foreign wars at all. Pull every soldier out of Europe and put them shoulder to shoulder along the border with plenty of ammo and orders to defend our border against ANY invader who crosses the line with deadly force. Otherwise we are not a country, but just an area on a map that happens to be the landlords providing space for the kleptocrats at the UN to lecture us about not bending over to be sodomized often enough. Yeah, I really don't care much about public (especially foreign) opinion any more while our once great nation is being destroyed by enemies foreign and domestic. We have no priorities, no policies, no plans, and just react to what other people do to us. Not a deckplate competence problem, but one at the top DOD and political levels.
John Blackshoe
Saudis et consortes have been bombing Houthis for few years with the local rule set and to not much effect.
DeleteIt is too easy to hide weapons in terrain, and not enough bombs to hit every cave and mud hut.
On the other hand occassional strike looks good for cameras onboard CV as "doing something"
IMHO, to really stop the attacks you would have to go for the source of drones and missiles, Iran.
But I think we all know that can invite yet bigger crisis at Hormuz.
That said, I can see Chinese getting fed enough withTHEIR ptofits plummetting and maybe Europe moving factories somewhere closer like Turkey , Morocco, or even inside own borders.
How does one spell Praying Mantis in Mandarin?
Or maybe Operation Raging Panda?