(Source) |
1. Fall of
Kherson.
As we
presumably all know, Russia seems to have made first rational strategic
decision of the war, and retreated troops from Kherson area on the West side of
Dnepr river, while they still could.
It is
assumed that was due to new, lately appointed CINC for the entire war. General
Surovikin. He gained reputation for ruthlessness, but also for efficiency in
the Russian expeditionary war in Syria.
He
apparently convinced Putin that bleeding the men and material in an untenable
position is not worth political goal of annexation. The men and arms instead would be better used shoring up the defenses, until, hopefully, mobilization effort shows results.
2. Bakhmut
brawl.
Meanwhile,
only area where Russians still were attacking was the area near of city of
Bakhmut, south of areas liberated by Ukrainians earlier near Kharkiv. Note that
main effort here was not by main army, but Wagner group mercenaries, drawing
heavily on prisoners released in exchange for volunteering. There has been a
speculation that this offensive, bloody and at a crawling pace of maybe
kilometer per week, is vanity project of the Wagner founder and long time
Kremlin insider Prighozin, former
prisoner himself in 1980s, who managed to become first restaurateur, then
catering provider for the Kremlin, earning nickname of "Putin's
Cook". The speculation seems to be
valid, because originally it was designed as a part of two-pincer move to
encircle Ukrainian forces between Bakhmut and northern occupied areas near
Izyum, but the latter are long gone due to Ukrainian counteroffensives, leaving
one pincer with nothing to connect with ...
3. V-1
offensive, redux.
On another
front, one that is far behind conventional lines, Russia seems to be betting on
massive waves of drones and cruise missiles aimed at energetic and heating
infrastructure, in Kyiv but as well in other major Ukraine cities. Last and
most massive wave of attacks happened on the 15th of November. The aim is, like
with V-1 strikes of WW2 to break civilian morale, with missiles because Russia
failed to secure skies enough for conventional bombing. Increased precision of
the weapons means increased physical results, but as history shows bombing the
enemy into surrender rarely works - about the only exception was nuclear
bombing of Japan, and not because of direct effect itself, because previous bombings
were as devastating if not more, but because it gave Emperor the excuse he
needed to intervene into political tug of war between war and capitulate
factions in the government.
Ukrainians
will heat themselves with wood-fueled stoves made from barrels and pipes if
needed, but they wont give up.
4. Polish
border incident.
This ties
up nicely into next event, as stray missile landed 6 km into Poland, killing 2
people at relatively empty countryside. Lots of wild speculations were cast
initially, but joint investigation by US and Polish services indicates it was
Ukrainian SA-10 (S-300) SAM which apparently failed to self-destruct after
missing intercepted Russian missile.
Thankfully
government played it cool and I think this is good news. Bad news is, next time
it could be Russian missile, with half ton warhead, in some more urban area. If
there were 50 victims, I can't even imagine extent of possible pressure on
government to exact some sort of revenge then.
5. What
next?
It seems
that both sides are not even nearing the point that they could consider even
meeting , let alone making peace.
For the
Ukrainian side, CDR Salamander has excellent piece on possible offensive COA:
Despite
being primarily navalist, I hold him in high esteem, and he has been in enough
joint staff operations to know what he is talking about.
For the
Russian side, it is much harder to predict. The very decision to invade was
a massive gamble, the way in which it
was executed, even more gamble and both those gambles were evidently made on
wrong assumptions about everything from own forces, to Ukrainian resistance, to
West support for Ukraine.
But, from
what I see, except for Bakhmut, the idea for now is to hold defence, train up
massive million or 2 millions strong army and attack again in spring or summer.
The problem
is, with losses of tanks and artillery pieces going in thousands, and overall
bad state of recruits. The most intelligent ones, and the most enterprising
made their way to places like Georgia, Khazakhstan, and even Mongolia in
numbers exceeding those mobilised by wide margin, leaving military with sad
bunch of 40- to -50 year olds with bad
condition and often alcohol problems. (This also cripples the economy, but at
this moment only part of economy Putin gives rats ass about is weapons and ammo
production).
Speaking of
weapons producers, it seems years of hollowed out budgets resulted in factories
ready to deliver half-tested Su-57 and Armata tanks - in single digit numbers,
or at best dozens a year. Russia had to resort to plundering Belarus semi-ally
for weapons and ammo, and reportedly buying ammo in North Korea. What is
proven, that in regards for drones, Russia has to rely on Iran. So the mighty
have fallen... Stalin is rolling in his grave, probably.
As for the
territorial ways of Russian advance, there is three possible places.
1.Suicide
drive thru lower Dnieper, to retake Kherson and go further to Nikolaev and
Odessa.
Least
likely. Forcing major river is hard, it took Soviet almost million casualties
in 1943. And if they planned to attack there again they would not give up
Kherson.
2.Second
drive on Kyiv.
Not likely
either. Some have speculated about Putin strong-arming Lukashenko, into sending
his meagre army to shore up Russian numbers. Reality is that Byelorussians have even less incentives to fight than
Russians, and best case they would melt away, worst case, turn guns on
Russians... and the last thing Putin is need another country to pacify, and bad
example for own troops. Note that in 2020 when Lukashenko had to pacify massive
protests after he falsified elections, he didn't trust his army and used
loyalty-picked security detachments.
3.Take
control of Donbas, entrench and ask for peace.
My most
likely Red COA¹. Bakhmut drive might be way to complete territorial takeover of
Donetsk province, allowing for a settlement along the lines of control. Of
course there is a big question of what Ukrainian side manages to recapture in
the meantime ... And if they will be willing to agree to such peace.
If they
complete the actions envisioned in Salamanders article, the fall of Crimea can not
be excluded. I decline to envisage possible results for the political stability
in Russia ... or its military reactions then.
Ewok out!
links to
interesting things:
Kherson campaign analysis in detail
Bakhmut offensive analysis
Thanks Pawel - and Sarge for platforming. Pawel's got a reason to care; far as I'm concerned this whole thing is interesting professionally, as it to Sal for whom I have great respect (been reading him for a long time). Personally, as long as the evil corrupt dilettantes running things here don't start WWIII, I don't have a dog in the fight. We have been facing an invasion of our own for some time and only one Governor out of four directly involved has the brains and integrity to respond to it. That we might get another State Executive who's got brains and integrity seems to be worth hoping and working for. Yes, the invasion we're facing is largely unarmed and not all of the "troops" have immediate malicious intent but it's our border being violated -that's one of the things I care about. Ukraine serves as a distraction and a money pit at best. That millions of our dollars sent to "aid" somehow wound up coming back to influence our elections is yet another travesty being perpetrated by people bent on destroying our country; I care about that much more.
ReplyDeleteBoat Guy
Seconding BG on thanking Pawel and Sarge for this combined effort. Good to hear from a non-Media source close to the war. As to a non-secure border, demoralization and dissolution result. Would like to know what Poland has been doing to prepare itself in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteFrom what little I know of the Poles (limited interaction with their SOF) I expect they are far more resolute and prepared than we are.
DeleteBG
Thank you, Pawel!
ReplyDeleteThank you Pawel for the report on the ground (and thank you Sarge for the map - very helpful to the geographically challenged!).
ReplyDeleteOne note, and it may have come out after you wrote this: AP fired a reporter for passing along the wrong information about the missile that landed in Poland. While I am exceptionally grateful that the Polish government was calm and deliberative, not everyone was.
Question: If option three (consolidating along the current lines of control) is the most likely, what in your opinion would it take for everyone to arrive at that same opinion? Usually those sorts of things do not happen until everyone is convinced there is no other option, which looks a lot (usually) like more bloodshed.
Great article. Thanks!!
ReplyDeleteConcise, cogent, and very informative. Thanks, Pawel.
ReplyDeleteThank you Pawel and Sarge.
ReplyDeleteAgree wholeheartedly with Boat Guy's opening comments.
Pawel's evaluation of the Russian industrial base could be applied almost equally to that of the U.S. Which makes me nervous about giving away all our systems and ammo to UKR when there are other threats like China, North Korea and Iran who may be emboldened as we become less prepared.
"Speaking of weapons producers, it seems years of hollowed out budgets resulted in factories ready to deliver half-tested Su-57 and Armata tanks - in single digit numbers, or at best dozens a year. Russia had to resort to plundering Belarus semi-ally for weapons and ammo, and reportedly buying ammo in North Korea. What is proven, that in regards for drones, Russia has to rely on Iran. So the mighty have fallen... Stalin is rolling in his grave, probably."
John Blackshoe
okay, here is update, answers to questions and commentary:
ReplyDeleteregarding Poland's capability and will to fight:
capability:https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-military-superpower-poland-army/
Poland since at least 2010 was throwing 2 percent GDP into defence, and has only boosted it since circa 2020. Things have then supercharged since start of Ukraine War.
will to fight: I can't find relevant poll, but AFAIK of European NATO countries, only Poland had majority in support of fighting war to defend Baltics from hypothetical Russian invasion. Sufficient to say, I presume Poles would be fighting as well as Ukrainians in defence of homeland.
On chances of some sort of settlement:
Slim to say the least. Putin has embarked on a task of no less than destruction of Ukrainians as a nation. It is like US decided to annex Mexico or Canada and told they are just another brand of Americans. Sum of all atrocities - mass graves, torture sites, kidnapping children and forced deportation of civilians into Russia is so great, that Ukrainians are burning with fervor to retake every inch of their soil.
I see only 2 ways out of this bloodbath: either Russians eventually drown Ukraine in blood, which is unlikely to say the least considering battlefield dynamics, or Ukrainians inflict so huge casualties on poor "mobiks" (half-mocking, half-sympathethic nickname for the Russian mobilised soldiers) that they will rebel like their precedessors in 1917. There is also chance of some sort of palace coup in the Kremlin, but this is less likely than the other options, simply because Putin has made immense effort to coup-proof his regime, and anyway many of the prospective heirs are either as hawkish as him, or even more. One condition in which I consider such event plausible would be Putin ordering nuclear strike or direct attack on NATO. Russian generals might be corrupt to hell, bereft of any conscience, but they are not suicidal. What would follow will be probably best described as "Tsar strangled with chain of command" - and possibly a civil war between military, FSB, Wagner mercenaries and Chechen militias under Kadyrov, Putin-anointed "viceroy" of the rebellious republic.
Note on the Ukrainian resilience in the face of waves of crusie missiles and drones targetting energy infrastructure:
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-war-weapons-tactics/
regarding US industrial decline compared to Russian:
US had it bad, but in Russia it was catastrophic. Imagine some 20 years without launching major warship, and barely any aircraft made. US had meanwhile, at reduced compared to Cold War state, but steady pace bought Burkes, SSNs, F-35s. And to make things worse, many major industries were left behind in Ukraine, such as Kharkiv Tractor Factory (in reality, most produce was tanks) or Antonov Aircraft Factory. Ukraine also supplied most of the engines powering Soviet warships.
Good stuff Paweł, thanks!
DeleteThanks for the input Pawel. I see the Polish army has gone big on South Korean weaponry and has asked for 220 (!) HIMARS systems so they are planning for the future (whatever that may bring). Given that the 18+ HIMARS Ukraine has have been a game changer I shudder to think what 220 would do. I used to think that Putin had some sort of strategic nous but it seems with regard to the SMO he was told what he wanted to hear, not what he needed to hear. Like you I don't think there is much chance of a negotiated settlement until Putin is removed.
DeleteOne thing I have noticed is that the Ukrainians seem to have kept their civil defence assets such as fire and ambulance in place. In a struggle like this they are vital and would say that having skilled people able to quickly effect repairs to national infrastructure (power, water, sewage etc.) is of almost equal importance as the fighting arms. I know the current crop of politicians don't like stockpiles but I think nations should have a strategic reserve of equipment to ensure transformers and such like can be repaired quickly.
I'd like to think this is a wake up call for Europe. You cannot deal reasonably with someone such as Putin. The Russians have long been undertaking influence operations here in the UK. I strongly suspect they have blackmailed or corrupted many in public life in the UK.
The future? I suspect Ukraine will continue its strategy of corroding the Russian army by attacking supply lines, command posts etc. The war will continue into 2023 with immense loss of life on both sides. Russian isn't rebuilding itself quickly after this and I suspect the time will come when the Ukrainians go full Mossad on the leaders of this operation and any war criminals. Note: they won't confine themselves to Russia when they exact revenge so some places could get a bit lively. On a further cheery note the head of the UK National Crime Agency states that weapons from the war will make their way across Europe, by this he means pistols and small arms not heavy weaponry. It's all good news isn't it?
Retired
Ed Rasimus, in an extended debrief in the squadron bar, concluded it with what I soon recognized was his closing Mantra.
ReplyDeleteIt went:
"Never trust the Russkies!"
I've never found a reason to not comply with Ras' Warning.
juvat
Just look at the stockpile of Iskander missiles they have built up while cheating on the INF treaty... and now they are gleefully lobbing them at Ukraine.
DeleteWinter is Coming. It will be interesting to watch the evolution of revolutionary attitudes as the temperatures go below 0 on any scale. I'm also looking forward to seeing the economic impacts of shutting down industry in order to keep the homefires burning. As Pawel notes, the cities are gonna empty out but the xurban folks will probably do fine. Rubble makes handy tindy and burns warmly when encouraged.
ReplyDeleteAll of this for the most pointless war in this century and one high on the list for most pointless of all time.
Regarding winter and energy disruption. This will be HUGE impact, especially in Germany, with the energy flow and use extends throughout Europe, Russia and even the U.S. It will be very hard this (2022) winter, but in 2023 it will be much harder. The impact in Germany's industry (and economic base) is one of those unforseen consequences of gas supply issues. This 5:37 video helps with some perspective and predictions. All this is based on current conditions, and does not include any speculation about surprises like cyber disruptions, criminal or quasi military attacks on infrastructure outside Ukraine, etc. Nor a catastrophic event like a EMP attack anywhere.
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/vrJBrvOUlJM
John Blackshoe
I kinda agree, kinda disagree... Poland, for example has signed multiyear contracts with US firms, AFAIK. And we had bought shares in Norway gas fields for the express purpose of securing own supply... The effort has been underway since at least 2014 when both sides of political fight here have seen writing on the wall... Germans are more screwed, they had to scramble for sources since they had to the last minutes believed Putins line that there will be no war. Greens had to even swallow their pride and allow nuclear plants to stay open for longer to avoid returning to coal!
DeleteLong term, Europe will find a way to supply itself. More renewables and nuclear, new contracts for gas and oil, and even return to coal in places is in the cards. 2023-2024 will be rough waters, but I expect by 2025 new stability.
Of course, there is a risk of direct attack on new infrastructure. But then it will be direct casus belli...
https://youtu.be/UwXhgmMa_WM a fine analysis of Russian side of equation with mobilisation...
ReplyDeleteThis definitely will help stabilize defense - you can defend just fine with well dug infantry even if it has little combined support.
But it is not a tool for renewed offesnive, especially as Russia is increasingly short on tanks and artillery:
https://youtu.be/oubk1vLWJjI deploying T-62s
The fact is troops in the field are easy meat for drone strikes and it was Russia that made that so clear.They're gone now but the videos of the drones hitting any 3 or more troops in the open or heading into bunkers on the front line were ubiquitous 8 years ago. If the drone could see you, a missile was on the way. The thing is, no western goverment or western army believes that and so they will blunder into the next little war and get blown away at the troop level which is the level that always matter to democracies.
Delete