Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Latest Observations from Our Man in Poland

Polish Forest
Hello there! from the forests of Endor (in reality Poland ...)

In today's Ewok report:

1. The one thing that went quietly, thank God (Iran helo crash).

Iran's unmourned president died in helo crash, returning from visit to neighboring Azerbaijan. He was known as Butcher of Tehran for 1980s multitude of death sentences as a judge in the 1980s political purges.

He was also one of candidates for the next Supreme Leader. While there were plenty of actors wanting to off him, including rivals in the Iranian race for next Supreme Leader, there is also known fact that helos are more prone to accidents than other aircraft, for variety of reasons including mechanical complication of the helicopter and flight profile that more often than not is in the vicinity of the ground. Add to this Iranian air force suffering shortages of spares due to sanctions and mountainous terrain where helo went down and you have multitude of risk factors even without any hostile actions.

But what was important, was the question, will Iranians try to pin the incident on Israel and try to launch new wave of missiles? Thankfully the answer turned out to be a solid "No."

2. The Kharkiv offensive and release of the western ammo into Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia seemed to feel confident enough to mount another offensive in new sector of the front, namely near Kharkiv, and opposite of Belgorod on the Russian side of the border. (Those studying WW2 remember this area as Manstein's hunting ground in the Winter of 42-43...)

After some initial success and taking like 100 square kilometers of land offensive petered out due to high Russian casualties and West releasing ammo to strikes on the Russian side of the border. Which was promptly used on anything worthy enough to target: fuel depots and ammo dumps, railheads, airfields, SAM sites, you get the picture.

If this was meant to seriously threaten Kharkiv, this means Russian high command is even more deranged than we think. Otherwise, it might be a plan to divert Ukrainian forces from Donbas, but still this doesn't make much sense. Russians try to attack "everywhere, everything all at once" which is evidently failing as it was in 2022. Notably, this is against Russian doctrine, and sound strategic principle of concentrating forces at decisive point to break enemy defence.

3. The Kerch strait interdiction and siege of Crimea.

In other news from Ukraine, Russia suffers a "sunny with a chance of ATACMS" summer in Crimea. Notably, the Kerch bridge has been not on the hit list, but instead rail ferries in the Kerch strait, strongly lending credit to rumors that bridge is too damaged to push heavy cargo trains thru it.
4. French promise Mirages (and they might be more solid than the name suggests).

Yup, that is more probable than French troops in Ukraine. This is more than it sounds, because the planes can launch SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles much more efficiently than duct-taped to Su-24 Fencers.

5. North Korea and operation Shitstorm.

In another news, North Korea attacks South with balloons loaded with trash and literally, shit. I am shitting you not!
6. Attacks on politicians: Denmark and Slovakia.

Meanwhile, in the streets of EU violence brews, with politicians in targeting sight. Barely Slovakia's PM Fico had left the hospital after assassination attempt shooting, then Denmark's PM Mrs Frederikssen was mauled on the street.

7. Sabotage and terror: Putin's new plan for Europe? mysterious fires.

It seems, unable to launch full blown war against West, Putin has resorted to old Soviet playbook of terror and sabotage.

Those in the know will immediately recognize the firm involved, Diehl has been an ammo maker for a long time.

8. Soldier stabbed to death and the migrant crisis.

In the shadow of big news, small-scale skirmishes between immigrants herded by Byelorussian KGB into Polish border and polish military and paramilitary forces ended up with first Polish casualty.

9. China rehearses blockade of Taiwan? And why it would not be a cheap way to subdue island.

Final piece on the list is concerning massive PLA/N/AF exercise around Taiwan. This might look like trial run of blockade, which might look at first sight as safer option to subdue island than outright invasion.

But, let me introduce you to this article ...

And I fully concur. China is as vulnerable to blockade as Taiwan, if not more. If China ever tries the move, it will probably end with US retaliating in kind, and it will be probably joined by other countries. Economy crashing is the last thing China needs right now ...

Thats all folks, and have nice summer!


  1. Nobody starts a war expecting to lose. Everybody has a plan until punched in the face.

    Almost every empire falls to monetary debasement and foolish wars.

    But sports reporting on warfare is so interesting. Almost like nobody's mothers are crying.

  2. Good to hear from our man in Central Europe. Going to guess that the helicopters that the President flies in are better maintained that what the Iranians used .

    1. Oh boy...

  3. Thank you, Pawel! Good to hear from you!
    Boat Guy

  4. Interesting perspectives, Pawel! Thank you.

  5. Thank you, Pawel. Your voice lends a great deal to my understanding of this mess.

  6. Pawel- Thank you. I have seen very little on the war in Ukraine in recent months. "War News Updates" used to be a good source, but it stopped posting and I have not seen anything else, so your analysis is most welcome.
    John Blackshoe

  7. Anything that flies like a rock and depends on a single nut to hold the rotor on is a solid NO from me....


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