Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Lexington, Ft. Sumter, and...?

John had this to say the other day -
Long before the latest shooting I started thinking about where the United States is in the cycle of its existence.
If I look at our Revolutionary War as the first civil war of the colonies, and I look at the Civil War of 1861-1865 as the second American Civil War, I must then start thinking about the possibility of Civil War III.
And I wonder where we are in the timeline leading up to what future historians may is the conflict that ended the United States.
My extremely amateur theory is that there is a point in time when the Revolutionary War could have been avoided. And there is also a point in time where nothing was going to avoid the revolution. I think the same question could be asked of the Civil War.
The question that makes me lose some amount of sleep is, what time is it?

Yes, indeed, what time is it?

I started to answer John's comment with the following -
When you have two opposing viewpoints, the point at which conflict is unavoidable is when neither side is willing to give. For the Revolution, Parliament was completely uninterested in bending to what the colonists (some anyway, perhaps a third) thought were perfectly reasonable objections. Once a politician gets a source of revenue (via taxes) they seldom wish to let go. Political power and money were the issues, in very simple terms.
The War Between the States, pretty much the same - the South wanted something and wouldn't budge on it. Some say that that thing was slavery. In my humble interpretation of events, the real problem was that the South perceived that they were losing power in the Federal government (which they were indeed as the North grew in population) and by making a balance of slave versus "free" states they would stay balanced with the North, assuming, I guess, that a slave state would have more in common with the old South than they would with the North. They couldn't keep pace in the House of Representative, only in the Senate could they hope to maintain parity with the North in terms of political power at the Federal level. (Yes, I am, perhaps, oversimplifying.)
Two sides with diametrically opposed view points, neither side willing to compromise any further or at all. But, as with the tax issue prior to the Revolution, it was really a economic issue. If you mess with someone's cash flow, you're going to have problems. Mess with someone's political power, same result.
These days it's a little tougher to gauge, in my estimation, the depths of the divisions we're currently seeing in our country. There are diametrically opposing viewpoints. One based on pure emotion, the other based more on logic and history. Not to mention the Constitution! But there is emotion on that side as well. Folks tend to get emotional when the loss of their rights is contemplated.
After thinking on it a bit, I had to go dig out some definitions. What exactly is a "civil war"?
James Fearon, a scholar of civil wars at Stanford University, defines a civil war as "a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups that aim to take power at the center or in a region, or to change government policies". Ann Hironaka further specifies that one side of a civil war is the state. (Source)
One could argue that the State of California, at least the duly constituted government of that entity, is already in semi-open rebellion to the United States Government. Refusing to enforce immigration laws and actually warning illegals of ICE raids. It's not throughout the state, only (seemingly) in those ultra-liberal coastal enclaves.

What happens when California runs out of Federal money? Their taxes are already exorbitant. Who will they turn to for cash when the well runs dry? Their are only two answers, they drop their opposition to the law of the land, or they turn to a foreign power for assistance.

No foreign power that I know of will offer cash without a certain quid pro quo. And what might that be?

To answer your question John, I don't know what time it is. But it's getting late...

I pray that it's not too late.

I once lived in a place* where troops were deployed on every corner in sand bagged machine gun emplacements and armored vehicles prowled the streets of the capital in the expectation of massive civil unrest. It was a very dicey situation. One wrong move and who knows?

I would hate to see that happen here.

What say the readership?

* Read this. I was living in Kunsan at the time.


  1. Many on the Left seem willing and eager to rebel against the government whenever they lose an election and they've made it clear that they won't respect the rule of any law that they don't personally like. Be it economic or social, a correction is needed when things get out of balance. The Left is out of balance today and going further to the extreme, even refusing to support Feinstein in CA because she's "not liberal enough" any more. They are going to stretch our social fabric until it tears and it'll be Antietam all over again unless something checks them. Not sure what the diplomatic solution is, so If we're going to do this civil war sequel, let's get to it while I'm still young enough to play an active role.

    1. Good point Murph. I'd hate to have to hobble to battle using a walker.

  2. Funny, I seem to recall seeing pictures of tanks on American streets before. Arkansas, and Alabama. Not a proud moment in the land of liberty. To enforce a conservative idea, that all children should have access to a quality education. Some others said, they could not play in our sandboxes. Which one was right? Neither. I remember, a time prior to that, where troops were used to quell workers who wanted more and many died. We are not so far from violence or radical ideas. And all it takes is intolerance. And greed. And disrespect of another. We get a lot of that, nowadays.

  3. It has worried me for some time now that there is a faction within this country who cannot, (and seemingly will not) accept a duly elected President if he is not of their party. That to me seems like the basis of a revolution or a coup or even the infancy of a dictatorship right there. I am concerned that things are only going to get worse.

    1. Yes indeed. I wasn't pleased with the election results of the previous two Presidential cycles but hey, the guy won, I soldiered on. You change things at the ballot box, NOT in the streets.

  4. I remember that time period at Kunsan. That was my "Come to Jesus" moment, as I walked out to my jet during my Nuke Cert and saw my first live B-61. There was a blinding flash of realization that there just might be something more to flying fighters than fun and games. Maturity (such as it is in my case) can occur in a nanosecond when given the right circumstances.
    I strongly pray that we are not about to enter a similar set of circumstances.

    1. Yup. I kitted up and headed to base as soon as my wife had the story over the TV. I was amazed at how quickly the ROKs had set up MG emplacements all over the city. Buddy of mine was in Seoul getting married, it freaked him out seeing all the tanks in the streets.

      NOT fun times. The folks who clamor for that sort of shit have no idea, none.

  5. There is, I think, a singular difference from the previous 2 civil wars and what is going on today. The minions on the left have no idea what they're in for if they succeed. Their masters do, however, and woe unto all of them. The minions are being lied to in the most insidious ways. This will not be a war of economics, nor will it be a war of morality. It will be a war fought to decide if Republicanism or Communism will prevail.

  6. I think Murph nailed it although the idea that Commiefornia's liberals believe that Feinstein is "not liberal enough" is a scary thought!!

  7. goddamit I have bad old memories of Martial Law 1981
    that pic above of T-55s on some Polish street is chilling...
    there is a big, big problem growing in the USA, and the crux lies in difference between coservative "Bible belt" and cosmopolitan, Liberal (Large L to denominate from classic liberalismn) Coasts (both)
    you can count your guns but what will you do when West Coast hacktivists turn off all your power?
    post-industrial; economy of knowledge and trade favors the Coasts...

    1. All true,

      I was wondering if you'd recognize that photo of the T-55s. You Poles have "been there, done that."

  8. I get really agitated when folks lump all Californians into one group.
    There are two distinctly different (three if you count the rational ones) types of Californians.
    The most vocal and active are relatively recent arrivals.
    There are the non-citizens, as well.
    Anyhow, there's as big a split within the state as there is in the U.S. and it's freakin' spooky.
    The folks in charge don't seem to understand fiscal responsibility.

    1. I did not lump you all together - "It's not throughout the state, only (seemingly) in those ultra-liberal coastal enclaves." That was intentional. Central Valley is fairly conservative as are other regions of the state. The people in charge of California are Leftist loons (if not outright goons).

  9. Nevsky Prospect. Ah. At first I thought it was one of the 1930's street riots in Germany between the Communists and National Socialists.


    1. There are similar photos out there of 1930s Germany. The Nevsky Prospekt photo was convenient (and public domain).

  10. I've long pondered the question of "what time is it". I only wish I knew.

    I daresay anyone who wonders what is to come when the clock strikes should take a good long look at any honest study of the French Revolution. Many of those taking to the streets today in protest will tomorrow be the ones applauding executions in the public square. One can only guess at what new excesses will committed by the self-proclaimed "enlightened" in the name of "progress".

    One can also recall more recent examples:

    "Silent men had dug great pits in the park. Unmarked vans had arrived, and more silent men, wearing long rubber aprons, had flung corpses into the pits, dozens of them, bloody from the execution chamber. The pits had been filled and covered over. And the children, when they climbed down from the trees and hurried home, were ordered by their frightened parents never to speak of what they had seen—at school, with friends, in shops, anywhere. Nor did they, for more than fifty years."

    "This, remember, was in the very center of the capital city of a great empire. Florid symbols of a new civilization stood all around. Officially there was a liberal constitution, there were law courts, things that called themselves newspapers, and supposed deliberative assemblies. Yet within sight, sound, and stink of these things men and women were murdered by the agents of the state, perhaps because they had told an unwise joke about the regime, perhaps for no reason at all. This was the culmination of a process that had begun with some of the world's cleverest and most idealistic young men and women setting out a program for utopia."
    -From 'The Cold War is Over' by Peter Hitchens in 'First Things', October, 2016.

    1. I don't know why I am often surprised at the great capacity for evil our species exhibits. We seem to demonstrate it over, and over, and over again.

      It's the "self-proclaimed enlightened" that really frighten me.

  11. When and if the war starts with China, it'll be a collapse of our banking systems, loss of internet, server farms, etc. The first strike will not be kinetic, it'll be cyber. Revolutions and wars and rebellions started with actual shots, now it's different. Now it's in the court of "public" opinion, controlled completely by the media. It's open rebellion here in CA with "Sanctuary Cities" but it's not rebellion in the traditional sense, but with the media and leftist politicians fomenting rebellion against the rule of law due to an unpopular president. They don't like the laws regarding immigration, and I'd argue they don't understand the basis for them, but they don't want to attempt to change those laws because they'd lose and then couldn't use the issue as a way to divide.

    1. All excellent, and most frightening, points.

      I worry for my grandchildrens' future.

  12. The future belongs to the young. And the young are being indoctrinated by Communists. Take a look around: 20 years ago known communists like Van Jones would not be allowed anywhere near the White House, at least not without terrible consequenses. Last election we had two communists in serious contention for the White House. Free speach is disappearing, The 2nd Amendment is 1 vote away from being repealed. I am afraid that my generation (60+) or maybe the one after mine, will be the last in a free United States. We were asleep during the revolution. Now it's too late.

  13. There seems to be a pattern of urban vs. rural in most conflicts. In our country the urban areas control the technology. The rural areas the food. In California the rural areas also control the water. What makes the USA different is the rural areas are well armed, and for many residents, proficient in arms. Military experience? Try to find a rural city without an American Legion or VFW hall.

    I hope it never comes to a shooting war. The only winners will be our international rivals. How much of our troubles are caused by their meddling?


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Can't be nice, go somewhere else...

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