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| Destruction in Odesa region after Russian drone attack in the night on October 6, 2023. Port infrastructure in Izmail district was damaged, including Orlivka checkpoint on the border with Romania, granary and 9 trucks (Source) |
It didn't help that Ukraine's frontlines nearly froze in "All quiet on the Western Front" manner. sure Ukrainians were pushing down hard in some places, and Russians wasted another few dozens of tanks and thousands of lives in others, but overall it seemed firepower trumped maneuver in such a way that old bastard Petain described in two words:
FIREPOWER KILLS
As such, there was nothing noteworthy to report - until news showed new item on the battlefield making its mark : US ATACMS.
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For a loooong time ATACMS were no-go item for Ukraine wishlist. There have been fear of nuclear retaliation, etc.
Nothing materialized.
Russia, basically is stuck on escalation ladder where all steps above are disaster, and most of steps below are lost war.
So, there it is for the Ukrainian War, nearing steadily its third year.
One definite lesson is, prepare lots and lots of ammo for any war with peer competitors. Enough to kill millions of enemies, in fact, because Russia seems undaunted by casualties nearing by estimates 300k.
Now, this would have been extent of my report, if not for "some damn fool thing in the middle East".
It seems history, while never repeating itself verbatim, is awesome in the art of rhyming.
On nearly exact anniversary of the Yom Kippur War of 1973 - older readers know the name very well... - Arabs managed to surprise Israel again, after it did again put its faith more in static defences (Bar Leva line vs Gaza strip wall) with not enough boots on the ground and firepower on call to defend them.
Only this time it was not regular military versus regular military clashing in the mostly desolate Sinai.
It was horrific spectacle that Salamander best described as Hamas LARP-ing Einsatzgruppen of the time of "Holokaust by bullets" in 1941, before the Germans perfected their industry of killing.
I wont bother to show you graphic footage. It is beyond point. Just enough to say we all know that only course of action left for Istael is total eradication of Hamas. Regardless of how many civilians in Gaza die in the process.
I am again leaning on dear friend Salamander , because he has great written article on how the Israelis will proceed from here.
Personally, writing this from Szczecin (ex-Stettin) I will posit that Danzig 45 COA¹ worked wonders in the long term, with Germans and Poles having friendly border (despite my just voted-out nationalistic government loud anti-German propaganda).
Note to everyone, there is nothing any country in the world can do to stop Israel from their COA once taken. No one is going to trade their capital city for Gaza, despite loud cries of support from the usual quarters (Tehran, Ankara, cough, cough). And for Israel eradication of Hamas has become matter of survival. And israel has nukes.
That doesn't mean there is no potential of escalation. Hezbollah in Lebanon has formidable arsenal of missiles, and Houthis already sent some SCUDs and drones Israeli way, most of them being intercepted by US Navy Aegis ships in Red Sea (Good job!), and at least one landing in Egypt. So much for accuracy...
So, basically US has one land war to look after in Europe, one in the Middle East, and Chinese are watching intently for an occasion to jump the Taiwan strait.
This looks awfully like 1930s with wars flaring up in Ethiopia, Spain, China, Poland until eventually all merged in one global conflagration.²
Pardon my pessimism, but on All Saints Day I feel obliged to quote Plato:
Only the dead have seen the end of the war.
-- Ewok Out!
Very interesting link to Salamander. Can remember the Yom Kippur War, geeez it's been fifty years already? With what Hamas did it's time, IMO, for Israel to use salt, lots of it. Thanks for this post.
ReplyDeleteThank you for this SitRep from Ukraine and the assessment from Israel.
ReplyDeleteBoth round off the current situation picture in a very professional way.
Indeed, the global security situation is getting worse every day.
One can only hope that the arsonists will reap their just rewards and that this will be a lesson to other maleficants similarly inclined.
Good to hear from you (and hear you are safe, at least as safe as one can be given the circumstances). Thanks for the update!
ReplyDeleteWho do I believe? Scott Ritter and Col Mcgeager say all is lost in Ukraine and the west arms are junk and useless.
ReplyDeleteOne US Gen said Ukraine would be in Crimea by August.
Just like to know what is really going on.
Anon, could you point out a single time a US General said that we might lose this little war?
DeleteThat would cripple HIS ability to GET A JOB at Raytheon. Cannot have that Sir.
hate to repetitive, but TNX 4 the update re Vladimir Vladimirovich vs. Volodymyr Oleksandrovych.
ReplyDeletemy only concern is that many with whom I speak feel that this eastern European border war has become Vladimir Vladimirovich vs. Joseph Robinette only lacking boots on the ground; the Ukraine at this point appears to be highly dependent on everything US just lacking the above and everyone is wondering when the day will come that President Biden will order our troops into the active zone ...
Interesting report, a few thoughts:
ReplyDelete"As such, there was nothing noteworthy to report - until news showed new item on the battlefield making its mark : US ATACMS.
In just 2 strikes involving no more than handful of old-model (circa 1995) missiles carrying "steel rain" submunitions (waste not, want not - if you gonna scrap the ammo nearing end of it shelf life you might as well use it to destroy your enemies) "
Yep, nothing like dumping some old cluster munitions (a war crime in most countries) with a known failure rate in excess of 30% to litter a countryside for decades to amuse children and farmers. Sweet for BYME and Raytheon, eh?
"For a loooong time ATACMS were no-go item for Ukraine wishlist. There have been fear of nuclear retaliation, etc.
Nothing materialized.
Russia, basically is stuck on escalation ladder where all steps above are disaster, and most of steps below are lost war. "
Our Military Genuses are using that Hillbilly Logic (ahem) "That old dog on the porch hasn't bit us yet, keep throwing stuff at him".
Pretty soon I have no doubt that the MEDIA will be screaming Russia is behind the street violence in our Country.
My not worked against a sitting President, did it not?
Putin isn't stupid, he knows our war chest is nearly depleted with OPEN Source reports that it will take DECADES to restock what we have expended in our BYME Adventures thus far.
I understand from that the Carrier battlegroup magazines were due to Bean Counting is far from combat loaded across the fleet, so I ponder just how many Aegis Missiles WE HAVE for Israeli Anti-Missile efforts.
Putin knows our "Military Record" to date sneak away from Afghanistan (leaving literally TONS of military gear behind for Taliban and terrorists), losing control of Iraq, Vietnam and soon enough as Europe backs away from supporting the comedian penis piano player in Ukraine, that little adventure will also sputter to a halt as WE SUPPORT OUR GREATEST ALLY Evar Israel by fighting their war for them.
Very interesting.
ReplyDeleteSo, Pawel, what's your take on your new government? Will it allow 'refugees' in or will it stay strong against illegal migration by military age males?
While historically Christianity has indulged itself in conversion by war, it was never supported by the book. Islam is a different kettle of fish, it is a religion steeped and conceived as religion of war and violence. These people think differently than those in the West and it behooves us to remember that. They are not just going to go away and be peaceful on their own hook.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the insightful update.
ReplyDeleteIt is very good to be exposed to a different perspective than what we get in the usual U.S. new sources, or even some of the foreign items shared on U.S. news aggregators.
My own view is that the U.S. is foolishly allowing itself to be sucked in ever closer to becoming a participant in one of more shooting wars we are ill prepared for, especially with out current incompetent and aged civil and military leaders. Wars are bad enough if you have to fight one, but even worse if you get into one you really have no business being involved in.
JB
AFU's strategic hit on two Ruskie airbases with ATCMS assets were nearly three weeks ago- most have end zone danced this successful op weeks ago.....Glory to Ukraine, her Warriors, Leaders & Supporters.
ReplyDelete***--Regarding Israel & their protracted issues, I 100% concur with the "Anonymous" observation who suggested __"While historically Christianity has indulged itself in conversion by war, it was never supported by the book. Islam is a different kettle of fish, it is a religion steeped and conceived as religion of war and violence. These people think differently than those in the West and it behooves us to remember that. They are not just going to go away and be peaceful on their own hook."__