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| Outside West-Cappel, France (Source) |
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| French farm - road to Dunkirk (Source) |
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| Outside West-Cappel, France (Source) |
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| French farm - road to Dunkirk (Source) |
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| (Source) |
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| Kyiv (Source) |
Here, I have done that. Hat tip to Jawa Report website ...
So, here we
are, 3 days counting to full month and were discovering ourselves in something
akin to the Groundhog Day - Russians still haven't taken Kharkiv, Kyiv ,
Cherkassy or even Mariupol, and they got captured airfield at Kherson
bombed/artillery-ed into oblivion.
Ukrainians
have only forces enough for local counterattacks, but they exact heavy toll on
the Russians - in my estimates, up to 30k total in KIA, WIA and MIA (captured
and desertions).
That is,
about 30% of the initial invading forces.
Including
like 5 generals killed ...
... and even
one senior naval officer.
Lets compare the results with benchmark for East Europe conquest, German attack on Poland in 1939:
By that
D+28 Germans were mopping up last vestiges of the resistance and negotiating
surrender of Warsaw.
And they got similar number of own casualties, but with order of magnitude, at least, more own forces involved. Invasion of Poland, check casualties section
So, Russian
conquest of Ukraine spectacularly has bogged down. Quite literally because
Rasputitsa/General Mud - is in full
effect by late March. Compare timetable of certain other battle for Kharkiv,
1943 (Manstein himself could not fight mud ...)
While there
are many more paved roads than in 1941, what Russians advances are making , is
contained to them. And Ukrainian light infantry maneuvres around them thru
countryside, using whatever forests, villages and towns in the way for cover.
Our good
net-neighbour Sal has a coverage of one such local battle.
With that kind of losses, it appears Putin has gone full Stansfield.
Recruiting Syrian fighters from Assad, emptying far-flung garrisons from all over the empire's 11 time zones, and even recreating the 1905 Baltic Fleet voyage in reverse.
Brits hide your fishing boats!
Polish,
Slovenian and Czech Prime Ministers visited Kyiv under fire, showing that while
not ready to send troops they are ready to put some personal risks to at least
bolster morale of the defenders.
When
speaking of the aid, instead of spectacular and flashy but limited usefulness
fighter jets, small and medium drones
seem to be the way. IDK if Turkey is following with more TB2 deliveries, but US
is sending own small drones.
Russians have been, tellingly, sending only missiles to try and intercept any help coming thru Lviv area. Seems their planes just don't feel safe enough over this part of Ukraine.
Which leads
me to another part of the puzzle. It seems Belarus while being forced to be
host nation for invaders, is in no mood to take any active part despite
whatever its dictator could wish. The troops just wont go... And Russians seem
to not have enough troops (yet) to make a thrust south from Belarus along
Polish border to cut off the supply stream of NATO weapons ...
I think the
center of gravity for Ukrainians holds firmly so far. Russian COG being the
propaganda-brainwashed citizenry at home, I am expecting it would take more
dead bodies, in the realm of few dozens thousands to force some kind of revolt
against Putin.
Contrary to
many pundits I don't look much forward to the palace coup alone, since the
people close to Putin are basically his clones in thought at least. But if
popular revolt looms someone might take the risk..
Though,
even such theoretically positive outcome is fraught with risks: revolution, coup or even civil war in nuclear
superpower? Yikes ... But still preferable to active war with NATO. And given
that Russians switching tactics to just shelling general enemy direction - with
civilians included, eventually that would happen. When some sort of civilian
casualties threshold is crossed be it 200
thousands or half million, or million - wrath of the public opinion will force
politicians hand all across the West.
See you
(hopefully) next week...
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| (Source) |
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| Gratuitous Airplane Shot Source RCGroups.com |
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| I wonder if they'd miss just one. |
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| My friend the English speaker on the right |
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| 25 February 2022 |
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| 09 March 2022 |
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| 12 March 2022 |
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| Sun feels good, doesn't it Dad? |
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| USS Michael Monsoor (DDG 1001) departing Pearl Harbor at sunrise U.S. Navy Photo |
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| Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse Viktor Mikhailovich Vasnetsov (Source) |
And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, one of the four beasts saying, Come and see.And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him had a bow; and a crown was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.And when he had opened the second seal, I heard the second beast say, Come and see.And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth beast say, Come and see.And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.
Revelation 6:1-8 (KJV)
Heaven and earth shall pass away, but my words shall not pass away.But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only.But as the days of Noah were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.
Matthew 24:35-37 (KJV)
No Man’s Land
written by Eric Bogle
Oh how do you do, young Willie McBrideDo you mind if I sit here down by your graveside?And rest for a while in the warm summer sunI've been walking all day, and I'm nearly doneAnd I see by your gravestone you were only nineteenWhen you joined the great fallen in 1916Well I hope you died quick, and I hope you died cleanOr Willie McBride, was is it slow and obscene?Did they beat the drums slowly?Did they play the fife lowly?Did they sound the death march as they lowered you down?Did the band play the Last Post and chorus?Did the pipes play the Flowers of the Forest?And did you leave a wife or a sweetheart behindIn some loyal heart is your memory enshrined?And though you died back in 1916To that loyal heart you're forever nineteenOr are you a stranger without even a name?Forever enshrined behind some old glass paneIn an old photograph torn, tattered, and stainedAnd faded to yellow in a brown leather frameDid they beat the drums slowly?Did they play the fife lowly?Did they sound the death march as they lowered you down?Did the band play the Last Post and chorus?Did the pipes play the Flowers of the Forest?The sun shining down on these green fields of FranceThe warm wind blows gently and the red poppies danceThe trenches have vanished long under the plowNo gas, no barbed wire, no guns firing nowBut here in this graveyard that's still no man's landThe countless white crosses in mute witness standTo man's blind indifference to his fellow manAnd a whole generation were butchered and damnedDid they beat the drums slowly?Did they play the fife lowly?Did they sound the death march as they lowered you down?Did the band play the Last Post and chorus?Did the pipes play the Flowers of the Forest?And I can't help but wonder oh Willie McBrideDo all those who lie here know why they diedDid you really believe them when they told you the causeDid you really believe that this war would end warsWell the suffering, the sorrow, the glory, the shameThe killing and dying it was all done in vainOh Willie McBride it all happened againAnd again, and again, and again, and againDid they beat the drums slowly?Did they play the fife lowly?Did they sound the death march as they lowered you down?Did the band play the Last Post and chorus?Did the pipes play the Flowers of the Forest?